The Australian Open semifinals are set, with three matches scheduled for Thursday (Melbourne time) and the fourth on Friday. Here are my thoughts:

Andy Murray v. Marin Cilic (Thursday evening): Cilic is Australia’s latest breakthrough, but all signs point to a convincing Murray victory. Why? Because Cilic has taken a beating this tournament. So far, he’s played 22 sets of tennis, compared to Murray’s 14 and a half. The Croat has been on the court more than any remaining player in the draw—an astounding 1,088 minutes, or 487 more minutes than Murray (that’s a surplus of more than eight hours). Cilic isn’t serving well enough to prevent Murray, the game’s best returner, from breaking him—and doing it a lot. Cilic’s first-serve percentage for the tournament is 53%, a very low number for a Grand Slam contender, never mind one who is 6-foot-6. This is a long-term concern. Cilic arches his back more than any pro in the game (even more than Djokovic) and his knee bend is deep and awkward. His toss often gets away from him. If Cilic improves his serve, he’ll be a force. But he has a lot of work to do. Cilic pummeled a listless Murray when they last met, in the fourth round of the 2009 U.S. Open. Murray won their previous three meetings.

Winner: Murray

Roger Federer v. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (Friday evening): After a sloppy first round, Federer has played brilliantly. Though he struggled early on against Nikolay Davydenko in the quarterfinals, falling behind by a set and a break, Federer quickly found that sixth gear—the one that only he has—and rattled off 13 consecutive games. Tsonga’s combination of firepower, touch and exuberance make him one of the most dangerous players in the world, as well as one of the most exciting to watch. Tsonga not only beat Federer the last time they met, but did it after falling behind 5-1 in the third set. Federer is a heavy favorite this time, however. Tsonga makes too many mistakes and too often becomes passive in rallies. Novak Djokovic wasn’t able to exploit this in the quarterfinals: His forehand lacked depth and pace. Federer’s forehand won’t.

Winner: Federer

Serena Williams v. Li Na (Thursday afternoon, first match): The comeback queen is at it again. Williams didn’t have to save a match point in her quarterfinal, but that will be no consolation to Victoria Azarenka, who won the first set and led 4-0 in the second. The frightening thing? It usually takes two players to pull off a comeback like that, one playing extremely well and the other engaging in self-sabotage. Azarenka’s level didn’t drop significantly; Williams just hit the ball harder, didn’t miss, and moved better than she had all afternoon. While Li showed considerable grit in defeating Venus Williams, Venus’ terrible play had more to do with the outcome. Her forehand went off, her serve was erratic, and she made poor tactical decisions. Still, she almost won. Her sister will show her the way, no matter how many layers of gauze she has on her legs.

Winner: Williams

Justine Henin v. Zheng Jie (Thursday afternoon, second match): I’d be shocked if we had an all-China final. But I give Zheng a decent chance of defeating Henin in this match. For one, Henin is tired and nursing an injury. She’s one of the best players the game has ever known, but even a competitor of her quality will have trouble surviving a two-week Slam after an extended break from the game. Zheng moves well, knows how to volley, and takes the ball early. Essentially, she’s Henin-lite: Similar in size and approach, but without as much power. If Henin is on her game, she’ll win. This one could be the most entertaining match of the tournament so far.

Winner: Henin

And the Winner Is…
Congrats to Ralph Quiros of the Philippines, who won last week’s anagram contest.

Question: If Rafael Nadal happened to be in the crowd watching Alona Bondarenko defeat Jelena Jankovic, what would you call him?
Answer: Bandana onlooker.

Ralph not only delivered the correct answer, but shared a better one of his own: Bandana looker, no? Love it.

Tom Perrotta is a senior editor at TENNIS magazine. Follow him on Twitter.