Editor's Note: Dark horses cannot be a Top-16 seed. Upset specials must be a Top-16 seed. For Steve Tignor's picks, read his men's preview and women's preview.
Peter Bodo: Roger Federer
He fell into butter when Rafael Nadal pulled out of the U.S. Open, and the butter only got softer, deeper, and creamier when the draw was made. Federer eats up stylish players and he’s the only Grand Slam champion in his quarter.
Ed McGrogan: Roger Federer
I picked Federer to win last week, based on form and feel. Since then, he won Cincinnati, Rafa pulled out of the Open, and Djokovic, Murray, Tsonga, Wawrinka, and Raonic were drawn in the same, opposite half of the draw. Call the latter a belated birthday gift from the USTA.
Richard Pagliaro: Roger Federer
Shove sentiment aside and consider that Federer has reached four straight finals, he's moving fluidly, and is third on the ATP in service games held. The five-time champion enjoys massive crowd support in New York, has a favorable draw, won't have to face Rafa, and excels on the fast track of Flushing Meadows.
Peter Bodo: Serena Willams
You got the guts to pick against Serena? Fine, I don’t. She needs to save her year, and the only player I can see capable of dealing with her power on present form is the erratic No. 3 seed, Petra Kvitova. The usual suspects aren’t very threatening this time around.
Ed McGrogan: Serena Williams
Playing the percentages here. Not only that the world No. 1 is due to win a Slam this season, but that she’s more likely to advance than a lot of her top competition, which is lumped together in the other half of the draw. The final will be a mental crucible, though.
Richard Pagliaro: Serena Williams
She’s produced her worst Grand Slam season in years, but remains the best player in the field. If her serve is firing, she lets her shots fly, and doesn't beat herself up over errors, Serena is the favorite to claim her third straight U.S. Open crown and record $4 million payday.