All Roads Lead Out of Rome

As the men arrive in Rome, the top players have settled, a little gingerly, into their starting positions for the French Open. Novak Djokovic, after his win in Madrid, is solidly out in front again. Rafael Nadal, after his titles in Monte Carlo and Barcelona, is back in serious contention, and a strong second favorite. Andy Murray, after his win over Rafa this weekend, is a long-shot third. Of the obvious contenders, only last year’s champion, Stan Wawrinka, hasn’t established himself this spring. But as we know, an unestablished Stan is a dangerous Stan.

Will that order be the same when Rome is over? Will a new player—or, in the case of Roger Federer, a familiar one—inject himself into the French Open conversation at the 11th hour? Here’s a look ahead at what we might see in the men’s draw at the Foro Italico, and what it might mean.

For Djokovic, all would seem to be well again. He’s coming off a title at his least favorite clay Masters event, in Madrid, and he’s returning to the one where’s he had the most success in the past. Djokovic is the two-time defending champion in Rome, and he has won it four times overall.

Just when he thought he could relax again, though, the draw came out.

It seems the tennis gods really wanted to see Nole and Rafa face off before the French, because the fifth-seeded Nadal has landed in Djokovic’s quarter. Still, that shouldn't scare the world No. 1 too much. He has won 13 straight sets over Nadal, and the last time they met in Rome, in the 2014 final, he played some of the best clay-court tennis of his career to win. A Rafa-Nole quarterfinal isn’t guaranteed, either: If Nadal wins his first match, he’ll face either Milos Raonic or Nick Kyrgios.

Second-round match to watch: Raonic vs. Kyrgios

Semifinalist: Djokovic

If Federer has been wondering what’s been happening on tour in his absence, he’s going to find out quickly this week. Federer, who has played just one event since the Australian Open, will start against 19-year-old Alexander Zverev; the two have never faced each other. If Federer survives that, he could go up against 22-year-old Dominic Thiem in the next round; Federer won his only meeting with the Austrian up-and-comer this year in Brisbane. All in all, playing those young legs and young games should be a good indicator of where Federer is physically.

Also here: Kei Nishikori, Richard Gasquet

Semifinalist: Thiem

Wawrinka has to get it in gear if he wants to have any chance of defending his title at Roland Garros, right? With most players, the answer would be a definitive yes. But Stan, the sport's great enigma, is obviously not like most players. Last spring he seemed to be wallowing in the mire of his divorce ... until he put it all out of his mind for two weeks and won the French Open.

Still, like the defending women’s champion in Paris, Serena Williams, Stan could use the match play. He hasn’t been past the quarters at any event since winning the title in Dubai in February. In one way, the Rome draw has given Wawrinka a break; the second-highest seed in his section, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, withdrew with a thigh injury. In another way, the draw has made it tough on Stan: He plays his good friend, Benoit Paire, in the first round.

Also here: Kevin Anderson; his record against Wawrinka is 4-4

Semifinalist: Wawrinka

Is it time to start taking Murray seriously on clay? No, he hadn’t won a tournament on the surface before last spring, but since then he’s been just a step—or a short slide—behind the best. In 2015, Murray won Madrid and lost to Djokovic in five sets in the semis in Paris; so far in 2016, he has split two matches with Nadal and lost in three sets to Djokovic. If there was one place Murray improved in his time with Amelie Mauresmo, it was on dirt.

Murray will need to improve on his past results in Rome if he wants to contend for the title. He's just 9-9 at the Foro, and has reached the semis only once, in 2011. This should be the year he does it again. The next-highest seed in his quarter is Tomas Berdych; last week in Madrid, the Scot made quick work of the Czech.

Also here: Roberto Bautista Agut

Second-round match to watch: Jack Sock vs. David Goffin

Semifinalist: Murray

Semifinals: Djokovic d. Thiem; Wawrinka d. Murray

Final: Djokovic d. Wawrinka