Who Will Remain?

Europe may be cracking up as we speak, but the men’s draw at Wimbledon hasn’t looked this safe, stable and predictable in more than a decade. With Rafael Nadal absent and Roger Federer still in injury-recovery mode, it feels like we've moved from the era of the Big 4 to the Only 1. Novak Djokovic, the two-time defending champion and winner of the last four majors, reigns unchallenged at the moment; he may be riding higher than any male player since Federer in 2004, before Rafa’s arrival.

Is everyone else just playing for second place? Here’s a look ahead at the men’s fortnight, and who might Remain when it ends.

It’s hard to know what, if anything, would constitute a "tough draw" for Djokovic right now, but it’s safe to say that, through the first rounds at least, this isn’t it. Djokovic opens against 177th-ranked British wild card James Ward; the first seed he could play is Sam Querrey; and his fourth-round opponent is slated either to be David Ferrer or Philipp Kohlschreiber.

Now it’s true, Djokovic may not be pleased to see who he might face in the quarters: Milos Raonic, the No. 6 seed, is one of the very few players who could conceivably throw a scare into him. Raonic is coming off a runner-up appearance at Queen’s Club, and he’ll have John McEnroe in his player box—if nothing else, that should inject some life into the often-soporific Milos show. Djokovic and Raonic have never played on grass, but the world No. 1 may not be all that worried: In their seven meetings, Raonic has won one set.

First-round match to watch: Jack Sock vs. Ernests Gulbis

Players of Interest:

David Goffin. The 11th seed might meet Raonic in the fourth round.

Lukas Rosol. This occasionally dangerous floater could face Djokovic in the third round.

Semifinalist: Djokovic

What do we think of Federer’s chances? In his two grass-court tune-ups, he’s come up against a new generation, in the form of Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverev and Taylor Fritz, and nearly lost all three times. But the 34-year-old did show flashes of normalcy in his win over David Goffin in Halle. The question now is whether he’s ready, after a prolonged absence from the game, to win seven three-out-of-five-set matches over the course of two weeks.

Maybe the better question, for now, is whether he’s ready to win the five matches necessary to get him to a semifinal meeting with Djokovic. Federer should like what he sees in this quarter. He starts against Guido Pella of Argentina, who has never won a match at Wimbledon; the first seed he could play is Alexandr Dolgopolov, who hasn’t taken a set in their three previous matches; the second seed in this section is Kei Nishikori, who has a career Wimbledon record of 8-6 and has never been past the fourth round.

Player of Interest: Pablo Cuevas. This dirtballer has had a surprising run on grass in Nottingham this week.

Semifinalist: Federer

With Nadal’s withdrawal, Stan Wawrinka happily slides into the No. 4 slot, and into a section of his own. Grass has never been this long-swinger’s favorite surface, but he has quietly reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon the last two years. Looking at his draw, he really should be able to go a step farther and make the semis. Wawrinka starts against rookie American Fritz, and the two other Top 10 players in this section, Thiem and Tomas Berdych, are safely on the opposite side; he can't face either of them until the quarters. Closer to Stan are Juan Martin del Potro, Bernard Tomic, Roberto Bautista Agut and the improving Lucas Pouille, who snagged the 32nd, and last, seed spot.

First-round matches to watch:

—Dominic Thiem vs. Florian Mayer: Thiem won the title in Stuttgart, Mayer won it in Halle. How well will Thiem’s elaborate swings work at Wimbledon? So far he has a 1-2 record there.

—Bernard Tomic vs. Fernando Verdasco

—Wawrinka vs. Fritz

Players of Interest:

—Zverev: The 19-year-old Federer conqueror will start against Paul-Henri Mathieu, and could play Berdych in the third round.

—Del Potro. The 2013 semifinalist might play Wawrinka in the second round.

Semifinalist: Wawrinka

You have to hand it to Andy Murray: He keeps trying. After two one-sided losses in the Australian Open and French Open finals to Djokovic, he’s hired back the coach who took him to the Wimbledon title three years ago, Ivan Lendl, and he looked invigorated by the move last week at Queen’s Club. Could it be enough to put him over the hump again?

Murray’s road to a third straight Grand Slam final looks manageable. He’ll start against British wild card Liam Broady, and the first seed he might face is Benoit Paire. The test could come in the third round, which is when he’s slated to play Nick Kyrgios. The Aussie obviously likes grass and Wimbledon, where he has a 7-2 record. But he doesn’t like playing Murray; in their four matches, Kyrgios has managed to win one set.

French snakes in the grass: Richard Gasquet and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who are on the opposite side from Murray here, have each reached the Wimbledon semis twice.

First-round matches to watch:

—Kyrgios vs. Radek Stepanek

—John Isner vs. Marcos Baghdatis

Player of Interest: Vasek Pospisil. The unseeded Canadian made the quarters here last year, but that seems like a long time ago right now. He's near Gasquet in the draw.

Semifinalist: Murray

Semifinals: Djokovic d. Federer; Murray d. Wawrinka

Final: Djokovic d. Murray