Rafael Nadal returns to No. 1, but clay dominance needed to stay there

Rafael Nadal will regain the No. 1 ranking from Roger Federer next week, following Federer's defeat at Miami, but keeping it could be a lot tougher for the Spaniard.

Nadal, who has not played since the Australian Open because of injury, saw his rival step in and grab the top spot at Rotterdam, but then hand it back when he could not defend his Indian Wells-Miami double from 2017.

That will give Nadal a 100-point lead in next week's rankings, and on top of that, Federer's decision to once again skip the clay-court season means he won't be adding to his points total over the next few weeks.

Rafael Nadal withdraws from Indian Wells and Miami:

Even then, Nadal will be under pressure at every event he plays during the clay-court season because of his enormous success on the surface in 2017. Titles in Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid and the French Open, along with a quarterfinal in Rome, means Nadal will be defending 4,680 points during this stretch.

It means Nadal cannot drop more than a single match if he wants to keep the No. 1 position. A defeat at Monte Carlo, Barcelona or Madrid would send him back to the second spot in the rankings, and while he can gain up to 820 points in Rome, not reaching the quarterfinals would also put him behind Federer.

Unless he sweeps all his warm-up tournaments, the ten-time French Open champion needs to win the title for an 11th time to keep his rankings position.

Still, Nadal has frequently dominated the claycourt season in similar fashion, though his form is now in greater question because of his upper leg injury.

Nadal has been in the No. 1 position for a career total of 167 weeks.

His next event is scheduled to be either the Monte Carlo Masters, or the Spain vs. Germany Davis Cup quarterfinal.

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From the Associated Press:

MADRID (AP) — Rafael Nadal could soon be making his return from injury after being included on Spain's team for the Davis Cup quarterfinals against Germany next month.

Nadal hasn't played since January, when a muscle injury in his left leg forced him to retire in the Australian Open quarterfinals.

Spain captain Sergi Bruguera, however, said they would see how Nadal's recovery goes before making a final decision on if he will play.

"He is getting better and about to finish his recovery, training well and in better shape," Bruguera said Tuesday after announcing his team. "We still have a week and a half to go before the series and we hope that he will be better.

"I am not going to confirm anything about any player. I won't decide my team until Thursday."

Bruguera also picked David Ferrer, Pablo Carreno, Roberto Bautista and Feliciano Lopez.

Nadal hasn't played in the Davis Cup since September 2016.

The series against Germany will be played on outdoor clay inside a bull ring in Valencia on April 6-8.

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