The Grandest Slam: Could someone other than Nadal be favored in Paris?

Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer are all vying to end their careers with the most majors ever for a male player, and they’re all going to be in the hunt for another at Roland Garros. Could this year’s French Open reshape men’s tennis history? This week, we give early answers to four questions surrounding their three-way showdown in Paris.

For more than a decade, suggesting that anyone other than Nadal might have a chance of winning the French Open has been deemed nothing short of sacrilege. And for good reason: Nadal has won 11 titles in 14 tries dating back to 2005, and his record at Roland Garros is 86–2. No player in the Open era has dominated a tournament, let alone a Grand Slam tournament, the way Nadal has dominated in Paris.

Do we dare to doubt Rafa in 2019? As of now, there are a few players who look as if they could be legitimate threats to dethrone him.

The first, of course, is Djokovic. Coming into the Australian Open final, Nadal seemed to be at his best; he hadn’t dropped a set in six matches, and his serve was as strong as it had ever been. Yet when Djokovic broke him to start the final, the match was essentially over. Everything Nadal did fed into Djokovic’s strengths, including his improved serve. Granted, that match was played on a hard court, but the Serb has also had success on clay against Rafa. He has beaten Nadal on dirt seven times—against 16 losses—and in 2015 he handed him one of his two defeats in Paris, in straight sets.

Along with Djokovic, we now have to add Fabio Fognini and Dominic Thiem to the list of players that Rafa fans hope he avoids in Paris. Fognini handled Nadal easily in Monte Carlo, and nearly bageled him in the second set. He has the talent to do something similar again, but from a psychological standpoint, the Italian remains a work in progress; can he keep his cool long enough to get to Rafa in the draw? As of now, Thiem might be the formidable foe. He outplayed Nadal in Barcelona, and has already had the experience of facing him in a Roland Garros final.

Any loss by Rafa in Paris would be a setback for him in the GOAT chase; he needs all the Roland Garros titles he can get. Of course, no matter how he starts a season, or even a clay-court season, Nadal has always had a way of playing himself into world-beating form come mid-May.

**Monday, April 29: Introduction

Tuesday, April 30: If Djokovic and Nadal meet in the Roland Garros final, how crucial would it be for the Grand Slam title chase?

Wednesday, May 1: Could someone other than Nadal be favored at Roland Garros?

Thursday, May 2: What factor might Federer play?

Friday, May 3: Whatever the result is in Paris, is Djokovic destined to pass Nadal and Federer in majors?**