2024 Australian Open Women's Tip Sheet: Fliers, Fades and Picks to Win

(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10:00 pm ET on Thursday, January 11)

Fliers

Mirra Andreeva (+5000): Andreeva is only 16, but she looks like she’ll be a mainstay at the top of the women’s game for years to come. The Russian is already one of the best defensive players in the world, as she has the jets required to track down anything. That should help her a ton on Melbourne's quick hard courts. Not many players will be able to play good defense in these conditions, but Andreeva should be able to do. Andreeva also happens to have a beautiful backhand, a rapidly improving serve and a good understanding of how to win matches. That’s why I think she’s due for a deep run at a major soon, and I can see it happening at the first event of the year. Only a few players are fully in form at the moment, so Andreeva’s reactive, counter-punching style might catch people off guard. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that she turned in a good showing in Brisbane. Andreeva actually reminds me a lot of Coco Gauff, who recently broke through in a hard-court major.

Caroline Garcia (+8000): This is definitely a longer shot, but I don’t think Garcia is playing as bad as her 2023 season suggests. This is a player that won the WTA Finals in 2022 and has one of the most dangerous serves in the world. That’s a weapon that should make her very tough to beat in Melbourne, as the courts are fast and booming serves are harder to pick up. With that in mind, I don’t think you can rule out a run from the Frenchwoman, even though she's playing the returning Naomi Osaka right off the bat. Garcia also played well in singles action at the United Cup, as she won three matches and then took a set off Iga Swiatek in her only loss. That should give her some confidence, as nobody else has given Swiatek trouble recently.

Fades

Naomi Osaka (+4000): Osaka might be a two-time Australian Open champion, but it’s hard to picture her winning this event. She played in Brisbane last week and didn’t look like her dominant self. She had to work extremely hard to win her opening match against Tamara Korpatsch, and she then lost a three-set match against Karolina Pliskova. Pliskova isn’t the player she used to be, so that was a rough performance from Osaka. The 26-year-old needs to play more tennis consistently in order to get her game back, and it’s entirely possible she’ll do that. But this feels too early in her comeback for there to be any sort of expectations, so I’d caution against backing her right now. And, as mentioned, we like her first opponent, Garcia.

Maria Sakkari (+5000): Sakkari played well in singles action at the United Cup, going 3-0 in matches against Daniela Seguel, Leylah Fernandez and Angelique Kerber. But she didn’t win a single match at the WTA Finals, and her 60.3% winning percentage in 2023 was the worst mark she’s had since the 2019 season. The Greek player seems like she is heading in the wrong direction, yet people will still bet on her because there’s a big number attached to a known name. Let Sakkari prove that she can hang with elite players again before putting your trust in her.

Pick To Win

Iga Swiatek (+250): It’s never fun giving out a tournament favorite, but it’s hard to see anybody beating Swiatek right now. And if you don’t think these odds are good enough, betting more is always an option. Swiatek has just been unbeatable since last October, when she ran through a loaded field to win a title in Beijing. She then followed that up by winning the WTA Finals without dropping a single set, and she went undefeated in singles action at the United Cup. Swiatek’s forehand became a little shaky throughout the course of the 2023 season, but she corrected that problem before the year ended. The Pole is now back to looking like she's alone at the top, and it’s hard to see anybody beating her when she has her A-game. I think Swiatek will win multiple majors in 2024, and I think she’ll set the tone by raising a trophy in Australia.