2025 Australian Open Men's Betting Preview: Fliers, Fades and Pick To Win 

It’s officially time for the first major of the 2025 season. In the U.S., the Australian Open begins on Saturday, January 11. All of the top players in the men’s game are in Melbourne, including Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev. Sinner is the defending champion, having won his first career major Down Under in 2024. However, Sinner is going to have to really work if he wants to hold off some of his hungry peers.

As always, we’ll do our best to get you ready to bet on this tournament. I’ll run through the odds, court conditions and then my fliers, fades and pick to win. Also, make sure you come back to TENNIS.com for my Pick of the Day throughout the event.

Last 5 Australian Open Champions

2020: Novak Djokovic
2021: Novak Djokovic
2022: Rafael Nadal
2023: Novak Djokovic
2024: Jannik Sinner

Australian Open Betting Odds

• Jannik Sinner (+120)
• Carlos Alcaraz (+350)
• Novak Djokovic (+550)
• Alexander Zverev (10-1)
• Daniil Medvedev (16-1)
• Taylor Fritz (28-1)
• Alex de Minaur (50-1)
• Jack Draper (50-1)
• Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (66-1)
• Joao Fonseca (66-1)

(All odds from BetMGM as of January 9. For the rest of the odds, head over to BetMGM)

Australian Open Court Conditions

The Australian Open is viewed as one of the fastest playing majors, as its GreenSet hard court generally plays quick. However, it is humid throughout the course of this event, and the courts play differently at different times of the day. So, while things are definitely faster Down Under, the matches can slow down.

Tennis Abstract has a Surface Speed of 1.14 for the Australian Open. That means that the tournament Ace Rate is 14% higher in Melbourne than it is on a tour-average surface.

Australian Open Fliers

These players may not win it all, but they’re worth looking at to win their quarters—and potentially hedge later in the tournament.

Joan Fonseca (66-1): Fonseca joined Sinner and Alcaraz on the list of 18-year-olds to win the Next Gen ATP Finals. It capped a 2024 season in which he went 12-7 at the ATP level, while also going 28-14 with two Challenger titles. Fonseca has a big, powerful baseline game, solid movement and a good head on his shoulders. It’s only a matter of time before he’s a threat to go deep in important events, and you shouldn’t rule out a run in Melbourne. Fonseca does face Andrey Rublev in the opening round, so it’s very possible he gets bounced immediately. But if he gets by the Russian, he’ll be confident in his chances of going much deeper.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (66-1): Mpetshi Perricard has the biggest serve on the ATP Tour, making him a very tough out in quick conditions. Last year, the 21-year-old went 20-13 in ATP-level matches, and he also won two tournaments. Now, Mpetshi Perricard is hoping to make a big leap, and there’s no reason he can’t. Mpetshi Perricard looked good in Brisbane, earning wins over Nick Kyrgios, Frances Tiafoe and Jakub Mensik. He just ran into a red-hot Reilly Opelka, who himself had earned a win over Djokovic. Overall, Mpetshi Perricard comes into this event in good form, and his playing style gives him a very high floor. You have to be serving very well in order to beat him, as he’s almost guaranteed a tiebreaker in every set. I like the Frenchman to beat his fellow countryman Gael Monfils in the opening round, and I can see a deep run after that. And if it’s not here, it won’t be long before he does big things at a Slam.

Australian Open Fades

Daniil Medvedev (16-1): When Medvedev was at the peak of his powers, he combined otherworldly defense with high-level serving and returning. However, Medvedev’s serving has fallen off a cliff recently. After going from an 86.4% hold percentage in 2022 to an 84.7% hold percentage in 2023, many wondered if he’d bounce back in 2024. But Medvedev had a hold percentage of just 80.1% last year, which was the lowest mark he had posted since 2017. That was his first full season on tour. Without the ability to quickly rack up holds, it’s just too hard for Medvedev to beat high-level opponents. Simply trying to outlast them isn’t working anymore.

Casper Ruud (80-1): Ruud played very well at the ATP Finals last year, but that performance came out of nowhere. The Norwegian was miserable in the second half of 2024, and he now heads to a major with very quick conditions. Well, very fast conditions haven’t suited Ruud all that well in recent years. He’s at his best on clay or even hard courts that have more of your typical speeds. Ruud also takes some time to find his rhythm, so it’s hard to imagine him doing so right out the gates in 2025. He also has a fairly difficult draw. Jaume Munar isn’t an easy first-round opponent, and Jakub Mensik could present problems in the second.

Australian Open Pick To Win

Jannik Sinner (+120): Sinner probably isn’t worth betting to win this tournament, but it’s also pretty likely he’ll win it. Last year, Sinner went 70-6, won two majors and also claimed three Masters 1000s in 2024, plus the ATP Finals. He was the most dominant player in tennis, and he was at his very best on hard courts. Sinner is dealing with a lot off the court, but as of right now, it’s hard to say anybody can top him. He’s an elite server, returner and baseliner. And he has the fewest holes of anybody in the game right now.