2025 Australian Open Women's Betting Preview: Fliers, Fades and Pick To Win 

It’s officially time for the first major of the 2025 season. In the U.S., the Australian Open begins on Saturday, January 11. All of the top players in the women’s game are in Melbourne, where Aryna Sabalenka is looking to win for a third straight year. But not much separates Sabalenka and the trio of Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina, so we could be in for a treat.

As always, we’ll do our best to get you ready to bet on this tournament. I’ll run through the odds, court conditions and then my fliers, fades and pick to win. Also, make sure you come back to TENNIS.com for my Pick of the Day throughout the event.

Last 5 Australian Open Champions

2020: Sofia Kenin
2021: Naomi Osaka
2022: Ash Barty
2023: Aryna Sabalenka
2024: Aryna Sabalenka

Australian Open Betting Odds

• Aryna Sabalenka (+225)
• Coco Gauff (+400)
• Iga Swiatek (+450)
• Elena Rybakina (+900)
• Qinwen Zheng (14-1)
• Karolina Muchova (20-1)
• Mirra Andreeva (28-1)
• Madison Keys (33-1)
• Jasmine Paolini (33-1)
• Naomi Osaka (40-1)

(All odds from BetMGM as of January 9. For the rest of the odds, head over to BetMGM)

Australian Open Court Conditions

The Australian Open is viewed as one of the fastest playing majors, as its GreenSet hard court generally plays quick. However, it is humid throughout the course of this event, and the courts play differently at different times of the day. So, while things are definitely faster Down Under, the matches can slow down.

Tennis Abstract has a Surface Speed of 1.14 for the Australian Open. That means that the tournament Ace Rate is 14% higher in Melbourne than it is on a tour-average surface.

Australian Open Fliers

These players may not win it all, but they’re worth looking at to win their quarters—and potentially hedge later in the tournament.

Karolina Muchova (20-1): Muchova didn’t play as many hard-court matches as some of the other top-tier players in the women’s game in 2024, but she had a 15-4 record in the ones she did. That was good for the third-highest hard-court winning percentage in the world. Muchova is a rock-solid server, is dangerous from both wings and can really play at the net. Stylistically, her game is beautiful to watch. And it really feels like it’s only a matter of time before she wins a major. This is somebody that nearly beat Swiatek at Roland Garros, and she’s still in the prime of her career. If Gauff isn’t the player to emerge from the second quarter of the bracket, it’ll likely be Muchova.

Madison Keys (33-1): When Keys is healthy, she’s a threat to go deep at majors—especially in quicker conditions. The American looked like she might have been on her way to a run to the final at Wimbledon last year, but her body failed her in a match she should have won against Paolini. Well, Keys is healthy again to start 2025, and we have already seen her pick up some big wins. She’s a very powerful server, but her returning has been a strength in recent seasons. Keys also happens to have a favorable draw. I’d say she’s the most likely player to make the semis in the third quarter if Rybakina gets tripped up.

Australian Open Fades

Jasmine Paolini (33-1): Paolini’s 2024 season was spectacular. She went from a mid-tier player to a mainstay deep in the biggest tournaments, and her runner-up finishes at Roland Garros and Wimbledon were extremely impressive. But Paolini could have a hard time matching her success in 2025. She’s no longer a player that people are overlooking, and there’s going to be signifcant pressure on her for the first time in her career. I was also somewhat underwhelmed by her performance at the year-end finals, and she won just four games against Muchova at the United Cup last week. That said, it just wouldn’t shock me if she were to go out a little early. She didn’t have much of an offseason, either.

Naomi Osaka (40-1): Osaka has won this tournament twice in her career, and she made some strides throughout 2024 in attempting to return to her championship form. Osaka also played well in Auckland to start the 2025 season. The problem is that Osaka had to retire in the finals of that tournament, and she was winning that match. That means she must have really been going through it. It’s a hard to imagine her being at 100% after that. And Osaka still must improve as both a returner and a mover in order to be a threat at majors again. She also happens to have a brutal draw, including a first-round matchup with Caroline Garcia.

Australian Open Pick To Win

Elena Rybakina (+900): It’s probably more likely that Sabalenka or Gauff will win this tournament, but Rybakina is a strong value play. She has the best serve on the WTA Tour, an improving baseline game and an extremely favorable draw. It doesn’t seem crazy to expect a trip to the semifinals, and she’ll have built up some serious confidence by then. Also, even if you wouldn’t like Rybakina’s chances in a meeting with Sabalenka, you’d probably be able to hedge off it and guarantee a profit at this number.