Advanced Edition: Can Carlos Alcaraz stand up to major, world No. 1 pressure at US Open?

WATCH: Alcaraz had struggled over the summer after enjoying a meteoric rise earlier this spring.

NEW YORK—The tennis world has spent the 2022 season bubbling over with teenaged impatience, wondering when Carlos Alcaraz would make good on his obvious potential on the Grand Slam stage.

Since his major breakthrough began at this tournament last summer, the 19-year-old raised expectations to a fever pitch by the time he arrived at Roland Garros—looking like the clear next gen favorite to wrest the champions mantle from the likes of idol Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.

Fans endured a frustrating summer from there, but they may not have longer to wait if the Alcaraz maintains his epic pace in Flushing Meadows. Can he end his already-unforgettable season with a first piece of Grand Slam hardware and, in the process, leave New York atop the ATP rankings?

I feel great to be in my first semifinal in a Grand Slam. I feel better reaching semifinal here in US Open. This tournament is amazing. The crowd is amazing, I would say the best in the world. Carlos Alcaraz

Why He’ll Win

If the answer to beating the proverbial Big 3 was simply “build a better model,” Alcaraz is that and then some, combining the athleticism of Roger Federer with the ground game of Novak Djokovic and the intensity of Rafael Nadal.

Somehow Alcaraz manages to be the best of all three in a way that, at his very best, makes then old guard look like old news. He may have first turned heads with a first Masters run in Miami but it was his Mutua Madrid Open title—won on home soil against both Nadal and Djokovic—that elevated him into a Jr. GOAT contender.

Stacked up in Paris against an ostensibly rusty Djokovic and an even more ostensibly injured Nadal, victory in Roland Garros appeared a foregone conclusion, but it didn’t happen: the Spaniard was overawed and repeatedly overhit in a quarterfinal defeat to Madrid finalist Alexander Zverev.

Even with expectations slightly diminished as Alcaraz made his first major foray onto Wimbledon grass, it was a shock to see him get outfoxed by fellow youth Jannik Sinner in four sets. Was the better model in need of a mental tune-up?

It may instead be the case that the Nadal-idolizing youngster may actually a better fit for hard courts that specialty surfaces, a reality that has been on display through five brutally physical matches in Flushing Meadows.

The quicker conditions help Alcaraz’s heavy ball, taking precious time away from awestruck opponents like Marin Cilic and Sinner himself, who found himself avenged in five sets late at night on Arthur Ashe Stadium.

The teenager’s vaunted physicality and impressive improvising has helped him recover for a pair of long matches, and with 48 hours to rest, there are few indications he will be anything less than his best against fellow first-time semifinalist Frances Tiafoe.

“I mean, the energy I receive in this court at 3 a.m., it was unbelievable,” said Alcaraz in a later-night presser. “I mean, probably in other tournaments, other places, everybody goes to their house to rest. But they keep in the court, supporting me. It was unbelievable.”

What To Watch Out For

This is a tough one. There’s nothing externally obvious about the Alcaraz game or Alcaraz the athlete that should keep him from running away with this major tournament—and many others thereafter.

All that can be said is this: we’ve seen this movie twice (or at least one and a half) times before. Up against an inspired Frances Tiafoe playing on home soil, might Alcaraz be in store for a reverse Madrid situation on Ashe Stadium? Tiafoe has rode the wave of crowd support through far less physical matches, first flying under the radar and later coming of age with back-to-back upsets over Rafael Nadal and Andrey Rublev.

Plus, there's ranking pressure to consider: should he reach the final, he could clinch world No. 1 outright if Casper Ruud were to lose the first semifinal to Karen Khachanov.

Should Alcaraz feel weak in the legs, he could feel compelled to overpress and end up delivering the fairytale final to Frances.

“He loves the crowd. He loves this court. I'm going to have to put my best,” the teenager said simply.

His best has very often been the best in 2022, but will he be able to find it when it matters most over finals weekend?