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Carlos Alcaraz is coming off a dominant 6-4, 6-4, 6-0 win over Miomir Kecmanovic in the fourth round of the Australian Open. The Spaniard will now face Alexander Zverev for a spot in the semifinals. Zverev needed four hours and nine minutes to squeeze out a 7-5, 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 7-6 (3) win over Cameron Norrie in his last match, but he did enough to set up a US Open rematch with Alcaraz. The Spaniard earned a 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 win over Zverev in the quarterfinals of that event, so it’s interesting that they’re meeting in the same spot here. But Zverev was dealing with an unusual scheduling situation heading into that match, as his meeting with Jannik Sinner in the round before drained him. He won’t be in as bad of shape here, even though Norrie gave him a real scare.

“I’m not like the US Open where I was completely dead and where I felt like I’m physically exhausted,” Zverev said after his fourth-round win in Melbourne. He later reiterated, “I’m not in the same physical state I was in at the US Open.”

Zverev might just be trying to scare Alcaraz a bit with those comments, but I’ll take him at his word. After all, the 26-year-old only needed two hours and two minutes to beat Alex Michelsen before defeating Norrie—so he has spent about six hours on court over his last two matches. When he faced Alcaraz in New York, Zverev’s previous two matches combined to be over eight hours. That’s a pretty big difference.

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If Zverev is at full strength, I just don’t see how this match will go Under a total as low as 36.5 games. Alcaraz has some serious advantages over Zverev, especially from the baseline. But Zverev is holding at a 92.5% clip to start the 2024 season, and he is one of the best servers on the planet. That should help him stay competitive for however long this match is, and it could even help him win a set. If this ends up going four sets, I find it highly unlikely that it won’t go Over 36.5 games.

It should also be noted that Zverev beat Alcaraz when the two met at the ATP Finals. That was a 6-7 (3), 6-3, 6-4 win for the world No. 6, and that says a lot about this match-up. He is clearly capable of hanging with the Spaniard. So, I’m just playing the Over and hoping to see the games pile up. This is a match I fully expect Alcaraz to win, with the 20-year-old looking dialed in thus far. But anything can happen when facing a big server, and that’s especially true with one that is a capable baseliner.

That said, look for this match to be a battle. And the best way to bet on a battle is not needing either side to win.

Pick: Over 36.5 Games (-115)