Alexander Zverev vs. Carlos Alcaraz: What will happen this time?

Alexander Zverev has gotten the better of Carlos Alcaraz in each of their last two matches. In last year’s ATP Finals, Zverev earned a 6-7 (3), 6-3, 6-4 win over the Spaniard. He then backed it up with a 6-1, 6-3, 6-7 (2), 6-4 win at the Australian Open.

Those two results should have Zverev feeling pretty confident heading into their quarter-final match at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. However, Alcaraz was clearly in a bit of a lull towards the end of 2023, and in beginning of 2024. But the 20-year-old has found his groove in the desert, and I like Alcaraz to get his revenge in Tennis Paradise. I’m even willing to deal with the juice to play him to cover a 2.5-game spread.

Zverev is coming off a really impressive win over Alex de Minaur. The 26-year-old looked like he was in a lot of trouble after dropping the first set, but he ended up pulling out a 5-7, 6-2, 6-3 victory. Zverev completely held his own from the baseline, which was the main concern for him heading into the match. He was also fearless in going to the net, where he used his 6'6" body to shrink the court. The problem for Zverev is that Alcaraz will have no problem hitting the ball by him or over him. He wasn’t able to do it in the last two meetings, but he has found his finesse game again.

Alcaraz should also be able to attack the Zverev forehand quite a bit. The Spaniard wasn’t playing well enough to exploit that weakness in Zverev’s game the last two times they met, but now that he is playing clean tennis from the baseline—while continuing to be aggressive—he should be able to go at Zverev’s weak side until it results in a mistake. Zverev has one of the best backhands on the planet, so Alcaraz needs to do everything he can to avoid it.

Alcaraz also happens to be one of the best returners in the world, so he should be able to do some damage against Zverev’s serve. The German is one of the elite servers in the men’s game, but the conditions in Indian Wells make it hard to put your head down and win easy service games. And the more pressure Alcaraz puts on Zverev as a serve, the more likely it is that he’ll get him to crack. And while Alcaraz might not be as good as he should be as a server himself, his ability to serve and volley still makes him dangerous.

I wish it was possible to back Alcaraz to win outright at a reasonable number, but it’s just not out there right now. And that’s likely because the oddsmakers know there’s a really good chance Alcaraz finds his way to victory. With that in mind, I’m okay with laying 2.5 games. A 7-6, 6-4 win seems well within reason, and I wouldn’t rule out a lopsided set, either.

Pick: Alcaraz -2.5 Games (-160)