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There’s a blockbuster semifinal between Iga Swiatek and Jelena Ostapenko on Friday, and that’s a match with a lot of intrigue. But if you read our Qatar TotalEnergies Open betting preview, you should already have a tournament future on Swiatek to win this event at +400 odds. If you do, the only thing you should be doing with this match is hedging a little.

With Ostapenko having a 4-0 head-to-head record against Swiatek, it makes a lot of sense to put a little on the Latvian at +290 or so to lower your exposure on the Pole. But in the other semifinal, we’re going to see a red-hot Ekaterina Alexandrova against Amanda Anisimova. And I really like Alexandrova to find a way through.

Anisimova has one of the biggest games on the WTA Tour. She has a massive serve and effortless power from the baseline. Also, as a somewhat poor mover, playing in the slower conditions in Doha actually helps her. She’s afforded more time to track down balls she normally doesn’t, and she’s able to set her feet to rip shots she normally rushes.

The problem is that Anisimova is still a player that is very difficult to trust when it comes to the mental game. She tends to make poor decisions with her groundstrokes, leading to a high percentage of unforced errors. In fact, her career unforced error per point percentage of 20.7% would be the seventh-highest number on tour over the last 52 weeks.

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Alexandrova plays a dangerous game herself. She goes big on her serve, and her baseline style is ultra aggressive. The 30-year-old regularly looks to end points quickly, taking huge cuts towards empty parts of the court. But Alexandrova has shown an impressive ability to stay solid over the last couple of weeks. Not only is she in the semifinals here, but she won a title in Linz a couple of weeks ago, in a strong field. Alexandrova wouldn’t have been able to do that—or what she has done this week—without finding a nice balance between playing with her front foot forward and avoiding costly errors.

Alexandrova has also flashed an impressive ability to make adjustments in Doha. She could have rolled over after dropping the first set in her matches against Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula—but she dug in, changed her approach a little and clawed her way back into both matches. That makes it pretty hard not to like her in this meeting with Anisimova. If one of these players doesn’t bring their best level, Alexandrova is more likely to figure it out.

I also imagine that a lot of people will back Anisimova because the American beat Alexandrova in straight sets in this very tournament back in 2020. However, the most recent outing between these players was a straight-set win for Alexandrova in Madrid in 2022. And I have a little more faith in a veteran like Alexandrova using the previous two matchups to get herself right for this one.

Pick: Alexandrova ML (-125)