Line Calls

ATP Rome Betting Preview: Nadal's odds, Djokovic's price and Ruud's potential

Presented by FanDuel.

Published May 08, 2024

Line Calls, presented by FanDuel: Casper Ruud to win Rome

The Internazionali BNL d’Italia begins this week, and it's the last Masters 1000 event before Roland Garros. But this field isn’t quite as loaded as we’re used to. Novak Djokovic will be joining 11-time champion Rafael Nadal as one of the biggest names in the tournament, but Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are out with injuries. It all makes for an interesting event to bet on, as there’s seemingly a lot of opportunity out there.

Last 5 Internazionali BNL d’Italia Champions

2019: Rafael Nadal
2020: Novak Djokovic
2021: Rafael Nadal
2022: Novak Djokovic
2023: Daniil Medvedev

Internazionali BNL d’Italia Betting Odds (presented by FanDuel Sportsbook)

Novak Djokovic (+190)
Stefanos Tsitsipas (10-1)
Casper Ruud (11-1)
Alexander Zverev (13-1)
Rafael Nadal (15-1)
Daniil Medvedev (16-1)
Andrey Rublev (18-1)
Holger Rune (23-1)
Hubert Hurkacz (42-1)
Taylor Fritz (42-1)

(For the rest of the odds, head over to FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Rome, where Djokovic is a six-time champion, is often the place where he dials in and gets his clay game together before heading for Paris.

Internazionali BNL d’Italia Conditions

The Mutua Madrid Open and Internazionali BNL d’Italia are both considered Category 1 tournaments in terms of ITF Court Rating. That classifies both of them as slow-playing events. However, conditions are a lot faster in Madrid because of the high altitude. So don’t expect this tournament to look anything like last week’s. The conditions in Rome are like that of your typical clay-court event, with slower and higher bounces than we’ll see all year—especially when not sunny out.

This tournament pretty closely mirrors what we’ll see in Roland Garros, but with a little lower of a bounce. But it doesn’t have the massive show courts we’ll see in Paris.

Internazionali BNL d’Italia Players To Watch

Novak Djokovic (+190): Djokovic has been missing in action lately, as we last saw him in Monte Carlo, when he lost to Casper Ruud. But the 24-time Grand Slam champion has had some time to get his body right, and he enters this tournament as an overwhelming favorite. And he’s probably still worth betting, even at a short number. Djokovic has just been great in Rome throughout his career, as he has won this event six times. And with no Alcaraz or Sinner, there’s really nobody that should be able to get the better of the Serbian. He just has to find a way to get by Ruud in a potential quarter-final showdown.

Alexander Zverev (13-1): Zverev is coming off a disappointing performance in Madrid, where he lost in straight sets to Francisco Cerundolo in the round of 16. But Zverev has a good draw this week and a chance to rebound. The next best players in his quarter are Grigor Dimitrov and Taylor Fritz, and Zverev should be able to handle either of them. Overall, he’s fourth on the odds board to win this event. His clay-court game is a problem for opponents, he's capable of serving at a high level anywhere, and these conditions make it easier on him to return and set up for his mediocre forehand.

If you’re backing Djokovic to win this tournament, you should probably bet on Ruud as well.

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Casper Ruud (11-1): If you’re backing Djokovic to win this tournament, you should probably bet on Ruud as well. The winner of a potential showdown between the two in the quarterfinals could go on to take it all. Ruud is having a fantastic season, as he has won a career-high 79.5% of his matches. He’s also holding at a career-high 87.1%, and he has also made strides from the baseline. He’s 135-48 on the dirt in his career, and he’s 29-9 on clay over the last 52 weeks. So, when looking for a player that pays out at double-digit odds, Ruud is your guy.

Rafael Nadal (15-1): Nadal is running out of time to get himself going before Roland Garros. The Spaniard did win three matches in Madrid last week, but two of them came against Pedro Cachin and Darwin Blanch. And his win over Alex de Minaur wasn’t as impressive as it seems, as the Australian just had an off day out there. Nadal then got blasted off the court by Jiri Lehecka in the Round of 16, losing 7-5, 6-4 in a match that as close as the score suggests. The 37-year-old does look healthier than we’ve seen him in quite some time, but winning in Rome is going to be very difficult for him. His serve has just been a nightmare lately. He’s somebody to avoid at his current odds, as he’s simply not a Top 10 player in the field right now—but he’s sixth on the odds board.

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Baseline