Australian Open Best Bet: Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Sonego

There weren’t many predictions for a quarterfinal between Lorenzo Sonego and Ben Shelton coming at the 2025 Australian Open. But that’s what we’re getting. So how will it play out?

We have already seen Shelton make the semifinals of a major, at the 2023 US Open. So this isn’t uncharted territory for the talented young American—and I’m very excited about his chances of reaching another final four. Shelton should be able to defeat Sonego, the 55th-ranked veteran, and I like him to do it in fewer than five sets.

Sonego has played one heck of a tournament thus far, but his draw hasn’t been all that difficult. Sure, Stan Wawrinka is one of the greatest players ever, but he’s not the player he once was. And while Joao Fonseca could be a future Grand Slam champion, he’s far from a finished product. His other two opponents, Fabian Marozsan and Learner Tien, are solid but unspectacular. All in all, Sonego has faced a few guys that he can beat by simply having an edge in the firepower and talent department. Well, that’s not going to happen here.

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When it comes to raw power and athletic ability, not many players can top Shelton. He punishes the ball from the baseline and has a great set of wheels for his size.

Beyond that, the tennis we’ll see should also favor the American. Shelton is one of the best servers on tour, with a monster 90.0% hold percentage on hard courts over the last 52 weeks. His serve should only to look better against Sonego, whose 13.5% break percentage in 2024 was absurdly low. His inability to consistently put returns in play played a huge role in Sonego's 22-30 record last year. His statistics last year make it hard to believe in his hot start to 2025.

I also believe Shelton has done some valuable prep work in the offseason. His return game definitely needs some more seasoning, but his backhand looks a little better, and he’s making better decisions in key moments. The latter should serve him very well in a match like this, which could feature some tight sets —and possibly even a couple of tiebreakers. Shelton will need to be smart in pressure points, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be right now.

There just isn’t much that Sonego does better than Shelton, so it’s hard to imagine him doing too much damage against the American on his favorite surface.

Pick: Shelton -1.5 Sets (-141)