Australian Open Best Bet: Mirra Andreeva vs. Aryna Sabalenka

When the 2025 Australian Open women’s draw was released, it wasn’t difficult to see that we were heading towards a fourth-round meeting between two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka and talented 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva. This will be the fifth WTA-level encounter between these two, but the stakes have arguably never been higher. It seems like they’re always in the same section in big tournaments, and it could develop into some rivalry one day.

However, as of right now, it’s a one-sided matchup. Sabalenka is 3-1 in four tour-level meetings between these two, and the wins have all been extremely lopsided. I don’t see that changing here.

The last time Sabalenka and Andreeva met at a Grand Slam, it was the teenager who earned a 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-4 win. That was in the quarterfinals of Roland Garros last year, and there will surely be some interest in backing Andreeva because of that. However, Sabalenka had a bit of a stomach virus leading into that match. Based on that unusual circumstance, the results of their other matches, you might want to flush that performance.

In four other meetings with Andreeva, including a one-set match in World Tennis League, Sabalenka is 4-0 and hasn’t dropped a set. Also, every one of those matches featured at least one set in which Sabalenka won 6-2. Sabalenka also came away with a 6-3, 6-2 beatdown of Andreeva in Brisbane two weeks ago.

As of right now, it just seems like Sabalenka has a little too much strength and power for Andreeva. The teen is a world-class defensive player, but she’s still lacking some punch when it comes to both the serve and the forehand. She deserves credit in doing what was necessary against Sabalenka in very slow conditions—but things are much faster in Melbourne, even if the courts are playing a little slower than usual.

I’m not sure we’ve seen the best of Sabalenka in this tournament, and she certainly looked out of it in her 7-6 (5), 6-4 win over Clara Tauson in the second round. But that says everything you need to know about Sabalenka. She played horribly in that match, but she still won in straight sets. I’m expecting to see Sabalenka step things up eventually, and she’ll blitz Andreeva if it happens here.

But even if it doesn’t, I don’t see Andreeva holding regularly enough to keep this from being a rough-looking score.

Pick: Sabalenka -4.5 Games (-105)