Australian Open Best Bet: Paula Badosa vs. Aryna Sabalenka

We’re in for a bit of a treat in the 2025 Australian Open semifinals, as two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka will face her good friend Paula Badosa. These two have been very vocal about the admiration they have for one another, so the dynamic will be interesting when they take the court. But this isn’t compelling only because of their friendship.

Badosa also happens to be playing at the level that made her a world No. 2 in three years ago, and need to be taken very seriously coming off her win over Coco Gauff. She's is a talented player with nothing to lose, and I happen to think she’ll take a set off Sabalenka.

Gauff gave Badosa some donations in their quarterfinal match. The American’s forehand, which has been such a big weapon over the last few months, reverted back to being a major weakness. But Badosa still had to execute. She also happened to serve extremely well, and continued to show the type of high-level baseline movement and fearlessness that got her to that match. The Spaniard has lost only one set and looks the part of a Top 5 player, but she’s not being priced like one.

Of course, Sabalenka is the best hard-court player in the world. And she has been unbeatable in Rod Laver Arena over the years. However, the Belarusian has given her opponents some openings lately. She flirted with danger in a 7-6 (5), 6-4 win over Clara Tauson in the third round. And while the score might not say it, she gave Mirra Andreeva some chances in the second set of the fourth round. The teenager just wasn’t playing well enough to take advantage. Sabalenka then let Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova win a set in their quarterfinal match, despite being a massive favorite to win in straights.

For as good as Sabalenka is, she is always good for a few stretches in which her serve will escape her. She can also be a little too overzealous from the baseline. If either of those happen against an in-form Badosa, we’re probably going to see a deciding set.

Badosa has a good serve, some real power from the baseline and also an ability to hang around and force opponents to make mistakes with her defense. All of that will frustrate Sabalenka a bit. It’s also not like we haven’t seen Badosa give Sabalenka some matches in the past. She is healthy right now, playing with confidence and—also—very little pressure. Those things make her dangerous to Sabalenka, who has all the expectations in the world heading into this match.

Pick: Badosa +1.5 Sets (+110)