Australian Open Final Betting Preview: Alexander Zverev vs. Jannik Sinner

The 2025 Australian Open comes down to defending champion Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev. Sinner cruised to a win over American Ben Shelton in the semifinals, while Zverev only needed to win one set before Novak Djokovic retired with a muscle tear.

Watching a player attempt to win a maiden Grand Slam title is always interesting—just like in the women's final. However, I fear that Zverev, unlike Madison Keys, is going to come up short once again, which is why I’m riding Sinner to win in four or fewer sets.

The head-to-head history between these two actually paints a decent picture for Zverev: the German is 4-2. Most recently, the Italian won a three-set in the Cincinnati semis, 7-6 (9), 5-7, 7-6 (4). But I’d strongly argue that you need to throw out the past with these two. Sinner didn’t really become Sinner until the start of the 2024 season, and the match in Cincinnati is the only one these two have played since. Sinner was able to win that match, and he was able to do it despite the fact that he was dealing with an injury.

The stylistic matchup is also favors Sinner. Sinner had a higher hold percentage than the German in 2024 and is an elite server in his own right. And his break percentage in 2024 was 28.3% (good for the sixth-highest mark on tour), with Zverev’s was down at 22.5%. So, when it comes to the serve and return battle, Sinner has Zverev beat.

From the baseline, it’s really not even close. I admire the way Zverev grinds from the back of the court, and I think he has made some nice strides when it comes to his play at the net. It’s clear he’s working hard to expand his game. But Sinner won’t be concerned when it comes to going backhand to backhand: his two-hander is just as good, if not better. As for the forehand wing, Sinner has one of the best forehands on tour. Meanwhile, Zverev’s forehand is still shakier than ever, especially in big moments. Sinner knows that when all else fails, he can put himself in good positions to win this match by hitting the ball deep to that side of the court.

Let's also consider Zverev's play against an injured Djokovic in the semis. Sure, the German was able to pull out the first-set tiebreaker, but Djokovic was barely moving at that point. Zverev had multiple chances to break earlier in the set, and should have won it convincingly. But he continues to play conservative tennis when the stakes are highest, and you simply can’t beat elite players if you’re not willing to take chances. It’s perplexing that Zverev can’t ignore his instincts and swing big. He hasn’t won majors playing the way he always plays—why not change it up?

All in all, I don’t see many clear advantages for Zverev in this matchup, and Sinner has the big-match experience required to block out the noise and focus on playing his best tennis. Nerves will be a factor for Zverev. The only thing I’m even remotely worried about with this pick is Sinner’s body holding up. Zverev can grind opponents down, and Sinner was cramping up against Shelton. The Italian needed a few bottles of pickle juice after the first two sets.

But if Sinner can get himself right, he should be able to win this event for the second year in a row, moving to three career Grand Slams. And he’ll be highly motivated to do just that, as we have no idea what might be coming this summer as we approach the outcome of his doping case.

Pick: Sinner -1.5 Sets (-136)