Australian Open Men's Semifinal Betting Preview: How to attack Djokovic vs. Zverev and Shelton vs. Sinner

In the semifinals of the 2025 Australian Open, we're going to see Novak Djokovic take on Alexander Zverev in the afternoon session. Then, the night match will feature defending champion Jannik Sinner taking on American Ben Shelton. Both of these matches will be very interesting to watch, and they're also going to be fun to look at from a betting perspective:

Novak Djokovic vs. Alexander Zverev

As someone that took Djokovic to win the Australian Open, I won’t personally be playing this match. However, I’d be jumping on Zverev at plus-money odds if I was.

Djokovic's injury against Carlos Alcaraz was legitimate; I wouldn't believe anything you see about him faking it. It was clear that Djokovic wasn’t able to push off and move to the right. He was just fortunate Alcaraz had no plan for how to deal with his serve—specifically to the Spaniard’s forehand wing. Alcaraz also got sucked into hunting winners when Djokovic did so out of necessity. That allowed Djokovic to hang around long enough for his medication to kick in. By then, Alcaraz’s mind was elsewhere, and Djokovic found his legs and confidence.

Zverev isn’t going to try and trade winners with the 24-time Grand Slam champion. It’s unclear what type of shape Djokovic will be in when these two take the court, but Zverev is undoubtedly going to test the 37-year-old’s legs. The 6'6" German is a grinder from the baseline, even if he looks like a player that wants to grip it and rip it. Zverev will be more aggressive from the backhand side occasionally, but his main goal out there is to rack up quick holds on his serve, and then grind you down on yours. He’s going to make for a nightmare matchup for Djokovic.

Djokovic has dominated the head-to-head series against Zverev, 8-4. But these two haven’t played since 2023. Since then, Zverev has gotten better while Djokovic has put more mileage on his body. The mental game will determine this meeting: Zverev has to believe he can win this match, and if he doesn't, Djokovic will quickly brush him to the side. We just saw the Serbian do that to one of the best players in the world—someone who beat Djokovic in two Wimbledon finals. Throughout his career, it has been said that Djokovic can take an opponent’s soul. That’s what happened in his quarterfinal with Alcaraz.

If Zverev is able to shrug off the fact that there’s a legend on the other side of the net, the matchup is quite nice for him. While Djokovic is one of the best returners ever, Zverev can neutralize that by hitting his spots. And Zverev has the length you need to get a lot of Djokovic’s more precise serves back.

It’s also not insignificant that this match will be played during the day. The ball should bounce a little higher, potentially going right into Zverev’s strike zones. It’ll also be bouncing faster, making his serves harder to return. On top of that, Djokovic can occasionally struggle when stuck underneath the sun.

This feels like a real opportunity for Zverev, who few seem to have any interest in backing. Djokovic is wounded and in a big letdown spot, and there’s no guarantee he’s better than Zverev at this point in his career. Zverev didn't win a major in 2024, but he was pretty clearly the third-best player on tour.

Lean: Zverev To Win (+138)

Ben Shelton vs. Jannik Sinner

This match doesn’t need as long of a breakdown. Sinner is 4-1 in five career meetings with Shelton, and he has won four matches in a row against him. The Italian won all of those matches in straight sets—he’s a cut above the talented young American.

Shelton appears to be doing better work with his backhand in Melbourne, and that’s the side of the court he really needs to continue improving. But his return game is still a problem, and you'd like to see some better decision making from the southpaw from point to point. Ultimately, all of those weaknesses will come to light against the best player on the planet. Sinner is a -1400 favorite for a reason.

However, it is pretty hard to come up with a play in this match. Shelton’s ability to rack up holds makes it pretty easy to imagine a scenario in which he steals a set, but I wouldn’t exactly want to have anything on it. But how about the match featuring one tiebreaker? That’s something I can get on board with.

Shelton and Sinner have played a tiebreaker in all five of their previous matchups. Shelton had also played at least one tiebreaker in eight straight matches before arriving in Melbourne, and he hasn’t played a single match at the Australian Open without one.

For a play like this, Shelton’s ability to rack up holds and inability to break is a perfect combination. So, let’s just watch this thing and hope both guys do their jobs with the ball on their racquets.

Pick: Over 0.5 Tiebreakers (-138)