Australian Open Pick of the Day: Alexander Zverev vs. Pedro Martinez

In the second round of the Australian Open, world No. 2 Alexander Zverev will face 44th-ranked Pedro Martinez. This match should go Zverev’s way, so you’re not going to find me making the case for Martinez to win or even cover. But I do think there’s a good chance this match will go Over the 28.5-game total. Even a 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 loss for Martinez would do the trick. That’s not asking much of the Spaniard, who looked good in the first round before Luciano Darderi retired.

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Martinez was leading 6-3, 4-1 when Darderi decided to call it a match, and he was only on the court for an hour and 11 minutes. So he got a nice little feel for the court conditions, but he didn’t have to exert much energy. He’ll be as fresh as can be when he takes on Zverev, and he'll have nothing to lose.

Zverev, meanwhile, earned a 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 victory over Lucas Pouille, and he was largely untested when it was his turn to serve. But he was also dismal as a returner, converting just 15 of his 18 break-point chances.

Zverev’s inability to capitalize as a returner makes it easy to envision a scenario in which Martinez has a set where he wins five or six games. Doing so would go a long way in this match going Over this wildly low total.

Martinez should pose a greater challenge than Pouille did along the baseline. If he does, it’ll be interesting to see how Zverev handles it. The German injured his bicep and had to withdraw from United Cup, so he might not have gotten the type of training circuit he’s used to in the weeks leading up to this major. Well, Martinez is a grinder and is going to try to keep rallies alive as long as possible. Zverev is going to need to be somewhat sharp with his groundstrokes in order to run him off the court.

All in all, those that have Zverev to make a run at this tournament shouldn’t be nervous. But I don’t think you can rule out the possibility of this being a match that goes four sets. And that might not even be necessary as we look for this play to win. Just watch this one and root for Martinez to hold as often as possible. If he’s even decent with the ball on his racquet, it’s going to be hard for this to go Under.

Pick: Over 28.5 Games (-115)