Australian Open Pick of the Day: Belinda Bencic vs. Naomi Osaka

Naomi Osaka turned some heads with her 1-6, 6-1, 6-3 win over Karolina Muchova in the second round. Muchova has been one of the most impressive players on the WTA Tour over the last few years, so this was one of Osaka’s best performances since her return to action. However, we’re probably going to see a bit of an overreaction to the win, with public bettors flocking to back her again.

But I’d caution against that. Generally speaking, you want to avoid being on very trendy favorites. I also like Belinda Bencic’s chances of winning this match.

While Osaka’s journey to get back to the top of the women’s game has been a fun story to monitor, Bencic is on a mission of her own. The former world No. 4 and gold medalist is coming off a pregnancy layoff. She played just one match in 2024, and we have seen plenty of examples of how difficult it can be to return to action as a mother. But we have also seen some examples of players immediately taking their places back. And make no mistake about it, Bencic is an incredible player. So, while she doesn’t have four Grand Slam titles like Osaka does, you don't want to count her out.

Bencic is already 6-3 this season, and one of those wins was a straight-set victory over Jelena Ostapenko in the first round. She’s in very good form at the moment, and that dates back to a run to a WTA 125 final in December. Bencic is taking her return very seriously, playing as much tennis as she possibly can. And she really doesn’t look like she is struggling to reach her best level whatsoever. So, at plus-money odds, she’s worth a play to beat Osaka.

This happens to be a head-to-head matchup that has gone well for Bencic in the past—she is 3-1 in WTA-level meetings with Osaka. Those wins also happened to come in big events: at Indian Wells, Madrid and the US Open.

The reason Bencic has had some success against Osaka is that she’s a great on-court thinker. Sure, Bencic is capable of ripping winners and playing aggressive tennis, but she’s also good at redirecting pace, showing off her variety and just remaining unpredictable. Meanwhile, Osaka tends to stick to her fastball, looking to overpower opponents.

Osaka does deserve credit for improving her movement considerably. The reason she has failed to reach her elite level since returning to tour has been that she can occasionally look like she is stuck in quicksand. But new coach Patrick Mouratoglou has done a good job of working with her on her footwork, which is part of the reason she was able to beat Muchova. But Bencic is on a whole other level when it comes to court movement and coverage, so she’s going to test Osaka’s feet in a big way.

My biggest worry here is Bencic's serve. She has had her struggles since the start of the season, and she was in the mid 70s in hold percentage during her prime. She needs that shot to be a weapon again. But Bencic should realize the importance of getting her first serve in the box against Osaka, even if it means taking a little pace off to focus on spots.

Pick: Bencic ML (+116)