Australian Open Pick of the Day: Jaume Munar vs. Casper Ruud

On Day 1 of the Australian Open, world No. 6 Casper Ruud takes on Jaume Munar in first-round action. Ruud had an up-and-down 2024 season, but he finished with a 51-25 record, won a 500-level event for the first time in his career and made the semis of the ATP Finals in Turin. All in all, he’s probably happy with a lot of what he did.

Ruud will be looking to get the season started with a bang in Melbourne, but he has a potentially tough opener. And Munar has the ability to push this match to four or five sets, which is why I’m dealing with some minor juice to go Over 3.5 sets.

Munar is mostly known for a gritty, defensive style of play, and his career clay-court success is a testament to that. But he has had some decent runs on hard courts, and that’s because he can occasionally ratchet up his aggressiveness. But in a matchup like this, it’s the defense and ability to play lengthy points that could serve him well. For as good as Ruud can be, he does tend to be a little tight early in tournaments. And if he isn’t hitting the ball very cleanly against Munar, it’s hard to imagine him winning in straights.

We have seen a lot of matches in which Ruud has come out playing a little wild, and several of those matches have taken place in Melbourne. The list of players that have pushed Ruud to four sets at the Australian Open recently includes Cam Norrie, Max Purcell, Jenson Brooksby and a very green Tomas Machac (in 2023). In fact, dating back to the start of 2023, Ruud only has one straight-set win in five matches.

Munar is also coming off a very nice hard-court run in Hong Kong, where he earned wins over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Nuno Borges and Lorenzo Musetti. Munar just needs to do a good job of hitting his spots with his serve. If he does that, he should be able to put a dent in the scoreboard.

Ruud should be able to find a way through in the end, and he’s a player that has the talent required to have a big year. We have seen that throughout his career, with three runner-up major finishes. But Ruud is no stranger to letdown performances on big stages. And while this isn’t quite Wimbledon, it is an extremely fast hard court. So, there are similarities in the ways he can be rushed and frustrated.

And for what it’s worth, Munar beat Ruud in straight sets on indoor hard courts back in 2022—the most recent meeting between these two.

Pick: Over 3.5 Sets (-122)