Australian Open Pick of the Day: Matteo Berrettini vs. Holger Rune

You don’t get many meetings between two household names in the second round of 128-player tournaments, but that’s what we’re getting when Holger Rune takes on Matteo Berrettini at the Australian Open.

Rune was able to survive a massive opening-round scare, winning 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 against Zhizhen Zhang. Meanwhile, Berrettini dropped the first set against Cam Norrie, but cruised from there. Now, he’ll look to knock off Rune and continue a comeback that has been several years in the making. But Rune's rise is a story that we’ve also been watching unfold, and I like the Dane to advance.

I wouldn’t rule out a big season for Berrettini this year. He had a nice year last year, going 32-13 with three titles. Berrettini is even further removed from the injuries that derailed his career, and he also hired Umberto Ferrara as his new fitness coach. Ferrara, you may recall, was involved in Jannik Sinner's doping case, and he was dismissed from the team for negligence. But Ferrara is known as one of the best fitness specialists on the planet, and one man's trash can be another man's treasure. The problem is that Rune is also leveling up when it comes to the people around him.

After a bit of a coaching carousel in recent years, Rune is back with his childhood coach Lars Christensen. Rune has had most of his success with Christensen in his corner, so it feels like he has the right guy running the show for him. Rune is one of the most naturally gifted players in the world, and his skill is off the charts. He’s also in for a big season, and I think that starts with a run to the fourth round Down Under.

Berrettini’s serve is absolutely incredible, so Rune will have to deal with his opponent having the biggest weapon on the court. But that hasn’t stopped Rune from dominating this head-to-head series. Rune lost to Berrettini at Indian Wells in 2021, but he had a 6-0, 1-0 lead on Berrettini before the Italian retired in a match in Acapulco in 2023. Rune also went 2-0 against Berrettini in 2024, beating him in Cincinnati and Shanghai. Both matches saw Berrettini taking the opening set, but Rune figured him out and got it done after that. Well, there will be a lot of time for Rune to figure Berrettini out over the course of a best-of-five match, no matter what the Italian throws at him. And this meeting will be on another fast hard court.

Perhaps Berrettini’s improved fitness will keep him from tailing off later in the matches against Rune, but the Dane should also have a much better game plan from the jump. I also just love the baseline matchup for Rune, who is smart enough to stay away from feeding Berrettini good looks from the forehand side. And Berrettini’s slice backhand won’t bother Rune, who has no problem getting low and digging them out. Overall, Rune is good about hitting deep shots to the Berrettini backhand and following them in with volleys.

I simply believe there’s a much better than 50-50 chance this goes Rune’s way. Not only does the head-to-head history favor Rune, but he also has a hard-court Elo rating of 1893.1. Berrettini’s is down at 1833.4. So, at plus-money odds, this is something I have to fire away on.

Pick: Rune ML (+104)