Australian Open Pick of the Day: Peyton Stearns vs. Emma Navarro

On Monday, January 13, we’ll see an All-American showdown between Emma Navarro and Peyton Stearns in the first round of the Australian Open. Navarro, who is coming off a season that included a quarterfinal run at Wimbledon and semifinal run at the US Open, hasn’t looked all that sharp in 2025. She’s just 1-2 on the season, with losses to Kimberly Birrell and Liudmila Samsonova. Meanwhile, Stearns is 3-2 in 2025 and has a win over Maria Sakkari, plus very close losses to Paula Badosa and Daria Kasatkina.

But while Stearns is in better form, it’s hard to imagine Navarro going out in the Round of 128.

Over the last 52 weeks, Navarro has a hold percentage of 69.3%. That's not exceptional, but Stearns’ is down to 64.3%. And it was a shaky serve that prevented Stearns from beating Kasatkina in Brisbane. Also, while Stearns has a higher break percentage (39.7%) than Navarro, we’re talking about a difference of 0.3%. That’s easily made up by the fact that Navarro will be returning a much weaker serve than Stearns.

Stearns also plays a go-for-broke game from the baseline, where she tries to obliterate forehands whenever she can. But she can be guilty of being over-aggressive. Meanwhile, Navarro is as patient as they come, and she loves a match against a player that can make too many mistakes. Her ability to stay solid is one of her biggest strengths, and we have seen her rope-a-dope her way to big wins in the past.

Navarro is also very good about remaining calm in big matches. She's only 23, but she has already gone deep at several majors. Her even-keeled demeanor helps her when her opponent is antsy or tight. In this case, she faces an opponent that can occasionally be a little too jacked up. Stearns is a Danielle Collins-like competitor—which is mostly a good thing. But she can go a little too big when her adrenaline is up, and Navarro can capitalize on that.

There’s a reason Navarro is 4-0 in four career meetings with Stearns. The most recent of those wins was a 6-4, 6-1 result at Bad Homburg in June. And it’s not meaningless that the match was played on grass. If this match is played at the right time, the conditions can be similarly quick. All in all, this match is pointing in one direction, and the juice isn't horrible.

Pick: Navarro ML (-140)