Betting Preview: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula, US Open final

If you read my pre-tournament US Open preview, or listened to Tennis Bets Live, you know that I have a play on Jessica Pegula to win the tournament at 12-1 odds. I was hoping to hedge off that a little at this point in the tournament, but facing Aryna Sabalenka makes it very difficult. The Belarusian is such a big favorite that it’s hard to find a way to put money on her while still having a favorable payout with Pegula. With that in mind, I’m personally letting it ride on the American. And I’m not that mad about it. If I was betting this match individually, I’d be taking Pegula to win a set. I also think she has a shot at winning outright.

While Sabalenka was able to fight off a furious rally from Emma Navarro in the second set of their semi-final match, it was clear the atmosphere was getting to her. Sabalenka even noted in her post-match interview that handling her nerves in that match gives her faith that she’ll be able to do it again versus Pegula. And she mentioned that it was a lesson learned after having let her emotions get in her way against Coco Gauff in last year’s final. However, I don’t think it’s as simple as shoving those feelings to the side after a win. They’re going to come up again if Pegula gives the fans a reason to get loud. And Pegula is a bit better than Navarro, so Sabalenka could be in trouble.

Pegula’s level right now is somehow being underappreciated. The American is never mentioned with players like Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina and Gauff. However, Pegula might be the best player in women’s tennis that hasn’t won a major. And she comes into this match playing the best tennis of her life, as she has won 15 of her last 16 matches. Along the way, Pegula has won a 1000-level event in Toronto, knocked off the world No. 1 in New York and beat a red-hot Karolina Muchova in the semis. She’s very much knocking on the door of the top tier in women’s tennis, if she isn’t there already.

I know that Sabalenka beat Pegula when the two met in the Cincinnati final, but that was a very competitive match. Sabalenka won 6-3, 7-5 in that one, and Pegula was very likely fatigued. She had just won the title in Canada a week before and then had to play two three-set matches in a row before taking on the Belarusian. This time around, look for Pegula to have more energy, especially with the adrenaline of the crowd helping her out.

It’s also very hard to beat a player twice in such a short period of time. And Pegula does have the ability to make things difficult on Sabalenka. Pegula is obviously capable of hitting hard, flat strokes deep in the court, and she uses that to push her opponents around and then create opportunities for winners. But she’s also capable of playing high-level defense and giving her opponents the opportunity to lose matches. So, if she senses any negativity coming from the Sabalenka side, she can lock things down and hope the Belarusian makes mistakes.

It’s also worth noting that Pegula seems to enjoy playing with no expectations. She played lights-out tennis as a big underdog against Swiatek, but she struggled early on as a favorite against Muchova. Well, I’m expecting her to come out with less nerves and more of a house-money attitude here. All of that should result in her avoiding a straight-set loss. It could also be enough for her to lift her maiden Grand Slam title.

Pick: Pegula +1.5 Sets (-118)