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In a meeting between two high-profile players that are struggling for form, Sofia Kenin takes on Ons Jabeur in the Round of 64 at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. If you have checked out any of my stories in the past, you probably know that I haven’t been shy about fading Kenin. The American has really been in a bad way for two or so years now. But I believe that Kenin is starting to show some signs of life lately. And I think the American can cover a 4.5-game spread against the world No. 9.

Kenin is coming off a really impressive performance against Lucia Bronzetti, as she won 6-3, 6-2 against the world No. 48. Kenin was especially dominant as a returner in that match, breaking five times in only two sets. The American was really letting shots rip from the baseline, but she wasn’t making as many errors as we have seen lately. And overall, Kenin looks like she is in good shape right now, and it’s showing in her ability to move along the baseline. So, don’t sleep on the possibility of Kenin playing some good tennis the rest of 2024. And I think that starts with a good showing against a three-time Grand Slam finalist.

It’s a little hard to ignore the fact that Kenin is 5-2 against Jabeur in her career, and she happens to be getting the Tunisian at the right time. I know Jabeur looked a little sharper in Madrid than we have seen in quite some time, but she’s still not completely there right now. Jabeur hasn’t been able to find her precision with her slice and drop shots, and she has never been a player that can just hit opponents off the court with power. So, she’s extremely beatable right now. And Kenin does have the ability to hit her off the court, even on clay.

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Let’s also not forget that Kenin made it to the finals at Roland Garros in 2020, and these conditions aren’t all that different. Kenin has the ability to hit through the slow court, but she also benefits from the higher bounces when she’s defending. These courts just allow her to play a lot more balls than a quicker hard court does.

On top of all of that, it’s just hard to imagine Jabeur blowing Kenin out with the way she’s serving right now. In 2024, Jabeur’s hold percentage is just 64.2%. And if she’s not making first serves regularly, Kenin is going to tee off on her second serves. That said, I like the American to hang around here and I really wouldn’t be surprised if she won. Let’s just hope the crowd isn’t too harsh on her. Kenin lost her cool with the fans in her first match.

Pick: Kenin +4.5 Games (-108)