Cam Norrie vs. Jack Draper at Wimbledon? Facundo Diaz Acosta may have something to say

Most everyone at the All England Club will be pulling for Cam Norrie in his first-round match against Facundo Diaz Acosta. The potential for a second-round matchup between Norrie and Jack Draper—the two best British men's players in the world—looms large. However, both players need to take care of business first, and Norrie needs to really watch out.

Diaz Acosta hasn’t played a single grass-court match this season, and he’s 0-1 on grass at the ATP level. The Argentinean isn’t going to have the best feel in the world when he gets out there. But he remains a talented player that has surprised people on quicker surfaces before. Sure, he has hardly had any success on hard courts at the ATP level, but he nearly eliminated Taylor Fritz in the 2024 Australian Open. Diaz Acosta put a ton of pressure on Fritz’s serve and was hitting his lefty forehand for some serious power. Fritz ultimately earned a 4-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 6-4 victory, but it was nice to see Diaz Acosta playing competitive tennis off of clay courts. And I can see him pushing Norrie a little here.

Norrie is one of my favorite players to watch, as he competes his tail off and maximizes every drop of talent that he has. But the Brit is struggling in 2024; he's just 14-14 on the season. Compare that winning percentage to Norrie's 64.5% in 2022, and 67.5% in 2021, and it’s clear that his game is tailing off. On grass this year, Norrie needed three sets to beat a qualifier in the opening round of a Nottingham Challenger. Then, Norrie lost to 649th-ranked Jack Pinnington Jones in his next match. Norrie followed that with losses to Milos Raonic at Queen’s Club (11-9 in a third-set tiebreaker) and to Emil Ruusuvuori in Eastbourne.

With Norrie not playing his best tennis right now, and failing to capitalize on the move to grass, it’s not fair to expect him to beat anybody by nine games. That’s why I’m ignoring Diaz Acosta’s lack of grass-court experience and playing him to cover this spread. I think Diaz Acosta has the ability to rack up enough service holds to prevent this from being a lopsided match—and I wouldn’t be surprised if Diaz Acosta takes a set. He’s playing with absolutely no pressure, while Norrie is expected to win this match easily.

Pick: Diaz Acosta +8.5 Games (-112)