Pick of the Day: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev, ATP Finals

On Friday, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev clash on the final day of round-robin action at the Nitto ATP Finals. If Zverev beats Alcaraz, the German will clinch the top spot in the John Newcombe group. But Alcaraz really needs a win himself. There are several different tiebreaker scenarios that involve the match between Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud, which will take place after this one. But winning this match would give Alcaraz a good shot at getting to the final four; a straight-set win would actually clinch the top spot in the group.

Alcaraz looks like he has a little more to play for heading into this battle. However, I can’t help but think that Zverev is the right player to back here.

Looking at recent form can be risky when a player with Alcaraz’s talent is on the court. However, it’s an important part of the handicapping process, and it definitely tells a much better story about Zverev. The German comes into this match after having won seven straight, and the wins have come over a very impressive group of players. Zverev has knocked off Tallon Griekspoor, Arthur Fils, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Holger Rune, Ugo Humbert, Rublev and Ruud. The win over Humbert was to win the Rolex Paris Masters, a 1000-level event in which the Frenchman had previously eliminated Alcaraz.

Alcaraz just hasn’t had a lot of success on indoor hard courts. He openly complains about their speed, and the lower bounces make his world-class variety a little less impactful. That’s why big servers and overall power players have given him trouble. Well, Zverev’s booming serve and ability to grind from the baseline make him one of the best indoor players in the world. And while Alcaraz has won two matches in a row against Zverev, the matches played in quicker conditions—like the 2024 Australian Open and a 2023 meeting in this very tournament—have gone the German’s way.

Alcaraz has made a lot of improvements to his serve this season, and he was money with the ball on his racquet against Rublev. But Zverev has a first-serve percentage of 70.3% on hard courts in 2024. His serve has been untouchable for most of this year, and it has been a massive weapon over the last couple of weeks. It’s just hard to expect Alcaraz to do a good job of getting into Zverev’s service games, but the German should get a few cracks at breaking the Spaniard. That’s really all you can ask for when looking at a plus-money price like this.

On top of all of that, Alcaraz has been under the weather this week. I also push back on the notion that this match isn’t as important to Zverev. There’s no way the German wants to slide to No. 2 in the group standings and face Jannik Sinner in the semifinals. A win here gives him a real shot at winning this event for the third time in his career.

Pick: Zverev ML (+114)