Charleston Betting Preview: Sofia Kenin vs. Jessica Pegula

On Sunday, April 6th, Jessica Pegula will take on Sofia Kenin in the finals of the Credit One Charleston Open. A win here would be a good way for Pegula to bounce back after a loss to Aryna Sabalenka in the Miami Open final, and it’s also an opportunity for the 31-year-old to head into the European clay-court swing with some real momentum.

However, Kenin isn’t going to make it easy on her. The 26-year-old is only ranked 44th in the world right now, but she has been as high as No. 4. She’s also a former Grand Slam champion, as she won the 2020 Australian Open, and she was a runner-up at Roland Garros that same year. This is a highly talented player that is starting to find her footing, and I like her to win at least a set here.

The last time these two met was at the 2024 US Open, when Pegula earned a 7-6(4), 6-3 win early in the tournament. But that was a match in which Kenin had her chances to take a set, and that was a completely different version of her. Last year, Kenin was just 14-22 on the season. This year, she’s 15-8 and has the highest winning percentage (65.2%) she has had since her massive 2020 season. That was also a tournament in which Pegula made a run all the way to the final. So, it was a red-hot Pegula against an ice-cold Kenin, and the 26-year-old still came close to forcing a decider.

Before that match in Flushing Meadows, Kenin had taken at least one set in four straight tour-level meetings with Pegula. That said, there’s a pretty real history of Kenin pushing Pegula, and I don’t see any reason she can’t do it in Charleston. Kenin might be somewhat nervous playing just her third final since 2020. But she’ll also enter this match with very little expectations, meaning she’ll be able to swing freely. She also didn’t have to play very much in the semifinals, as Amanda Anisimova retired trailing 5-2 in the opening set. So, Kenin should be pretty well-rested against Pegula, who went deep in Miami and has now played back-to-back three-setters in Charleston.

These conditions are also quite favorable for Kenin. They’re a little quicker than your average clay courts, so Kenin’s ability to blast the ball is still there. But the clay still gives her a little more time to set her feet, and she needs it. Kenin’s biggest weakness is sloppy footwork, but having a bit of a higher bounce will give her time to set her feet and rip the ball.

If Kenin just has a decent day as a server, this should be a very competitive match — and I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of her winning. But taking the set play is a bit safer, as it protects against the better player finding a way to adjust and figure out how to win on the big stage.

Pick: Kenin +1.5 Sets (-150)