Dubai Betting Preview: Linda Noskova vs. Jessica Pegula

There are still some round-of-32 matches to be played in Dubai on Wednesday. But it’s hard not to look ahead to Linda Noskova and Jessica Pegula in the round of 16. Pegula is a household name and has done everything but win a major; Noskova, a 20-year-old phenom, may still off the radar to some, but she’s quickly working to change that.

The young Czech player has already notched three wins over Top 20 opponents this year: Paula Badosa in Abu Dhabi, Donna Vekic in Doha, and Diana Shnaider in Dubai. On top of that, she nearly eliminated Iga Swiatek in Doha, where the Pole plays some of her best tennis.

With all of that in mind, I like Noskova’s chances of advancing to the quarterfinals of the Dubai Duty Free Championships, so I’m grabbing her at plus-money odds.

I also love that Noskova is coming off a three-set war against Shnaider. The Czech gutted out a 7-6 (8), 4-6, 6-3 win, and she should have gotten most of her nerves out in that tightly-contested battle. Meanwhile, Pegula played a stress-free match against an out-of-whack Liudmila Samsonova, winning 6-0, 6-4 in a little over an hour.

Pegula didn’t have to play any pressure points, and I suspect she’s going to be a little overwhelmed by what’s coming in the next match. Noskova is one of the most aggressive baseline players on tour, absolutely crushing the ball when she’s on her game. She’s going to have Pegula scrambling rather often in this one, and it really wouldn’t be surprising to see the Czech get the better of the American from the baseline.

The only thing to worry about with Noskova is her serve, but that is quickly turning from a weakness into a weapon. And realistically, it’s only a matter of time before that’s something that can be counted on consistently, as she has the arm talent and lower body strength required to be one of the better servers on tour.

Backing Noskova doesn't have to mean anything about where you believe Pegula stands as a player. The American is still a Top 10 talent. But recent form is incredibly important when betting on tennis, and Noskova has been on a bit of a heater lately. I also view Noskova as one of the elite talents in this sport, so she’s going to find ways to beat great players when she’s in good form.

Pick: Noskova ML (+120)