Dubai Betting Preview: Sofia Kenin vs. Elena Rybakina

Jasmine Paolini got injured in the second set of her match against Sofia Kenin, paving the way for the American to cruise to a 6-4, 6-0 victory. However, Kenin did take that first set against a healthy version of last year’s breakout star. She has now won seven of her last nine matches, including wins over Donna Vekic, Marta Kostyuk and Paolini at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships. And while I’m not sure the run continues, I do like Kenin to win at least one set against Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals.

While Kenin is currently ranked 56th, her peak Elo rating of 2044.6 shows she’s capable of playing at a much higher level than her current 1780.3. That shouldn’t surprise anyone considering Kenin won the Australian Open in 2020, but she has dealt with all kinds of consistency issues since then. But, the fact of the matter is, there’s an elite level inside of Kenin, and we’ve been seeing it come out lately.

What has really been impressive throughout Kenin’s run in Dubai is her serving. She has made at least 70.5% of her first serves in all three of her matches (and she's done so in each of her last five). If Kenin has truly figured out the serve, it’s only a matter of time before she flirts with a Top 15 ranking again. It also bodes well for this meeting with Rybakina.

Rybakina is obviously one of the best servers on the planet. That weapon helped her win a Wimbledon title in 2022, and it’s one of the main reasons people still put her in the conversation with Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff. However, there are holes in the rest of Rybakina’s game. She’s not particularly good as a returner, and she can be outplayed from the baseline. And with the way Kenin is playing right now, she should be able to give Rybakina some trouble.

Kenin is such an aggressive ball-striker that it’s hard to imagine her failing to dictate play in this match. She must remain precise with her footwork, as she can rack up unforced errors when she’s sloppy and relying strictly on her talent, but nothing we have seen this week suggests she’ll do that. There were some shaky moments in her match against Kostyuk, but she ultimately settled down and found her game. I think she’ll do the same in this one.

It also should be noted that Rybakina was on the court for 2:51 in a battle with Paula Badosa last round—and saved six match points. Kenin’s win over Paolini took 1:03. The American will have the fresher legs.

If that’s not enough to sway you, how about the fact that Kenin has played Rybakina extremely close in the past? When these two met at this very tournament in 2020, Kenin took the opening set before dropping the next two. And at Indian Wells in 2023, Rybakina prevailed in two tiebreakers. Those matches should give Kenin the belief that she needs to compete.

Pick: Kenin +1.5 Sets (+136)