Dubai Betting Preview: Sofia Kenin vs. Marta Kostyuk

Sofia Kenin is coming off a rough 2024 season, as she went 14-22 and wasn’t able to build on a 2023 season in which she went 23-18. It now feels like it was ages ago that Kenin went 24-9 in 2020 and won an Australian Open title. However, we have seen some signs of life from the American, as Kenin has won five of her last seven matches. And her 7-5, 6-3 win over Donna Vekic in the first round of this event was especially impressive, as her serving was absolutely flawless. Now, it’s hard not to like the 26-year-old to give Marta Kostyuk a run for her money in the Round of 32 at the Dubai Duty Free Championships. With that in mind, paying up a little for a +1.5 sets play should be a good move.

For as bad as things have gotten for Kenin over the years, she’s just now entering the prime of her career — at least in terms of age. This isn’t a player that is getting up there in age and losing athleticism rapidly. Kenin’s issues mostly come in the form of inconsistency in the footwork department, as well as problems finding ways to impose her will on matches as a server. But Kenin just made 76.3% of her first serves against Vekic, marking four straight matches hitting at least 73.6% of her first serves into the box. With how powerful she is from the baseline — especially when setting her feet — serving that well is going to give her a chance on most days. And I generally like this matchup with Kostyuk.

Kostyuk has won four of her last five matches and is coming off a tremendous 2024 season. She went 34-20, had a career-high 63.0% winning percentage and made two finals on the year. However, Kostyuk’s hold percentage was just 63.7% last year. She’s a poor server and a very good returner. That said, this is a match in which we should see a bunch of breaks. But Kenin has a slight edge as a server, and she’s likely going to be the one that dictates play from the baseline. The American is aggressive and plays effective quick-strike tennis when she’s in form.

Interestingly enough, Kostyuk could theoretically pose some problems for Kenin. The Ukrainian is one of the best pure athletes in the sport, and if she wanted to lock things down and force Kenin to play a bunch of extra shots then the American would be at risk of unraveling. That’s always possible given how sloppy Kenin can be from a fundamental standpoint. But that’s simply not Kostyuk’s game. She’s a big hitter and likes to swing freely at open spots of the court, so we’re going to see a lot of points won in the 0 to 4 shot range.

Realistically, this is a match that Kenin can win outright, so I’ll also have a little something on the big plus-money odds. But the set spread is the safer play. And I’m looking forward to seeing how this one plays out. Kenin still has plenty of time to get her career back on track; talent has never been an issue for her. Hopefully her recent run of form is a sign of things to come.

Pick: Kenin +1.5 Sets (-164)