Dubai Betting Preview: Will Swiatek, Sabalenka or Gauff finally win it?

There’s no time for rest on the WTA Tour. After last week’s thrilling 1000-level event in Doha, we’re right back at it with another, in Dubai. On Sunday, February 16th, the Dubai Duty Free Championships begins.

This event has been interesting over the years. While Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina have both had runner-up finishes, neither has won this tournament—nor has Aryna Sabalenka or Coco Gauff. But all four will always like their chances, so this is something of a land of opportunity. That said, let’s get into all of it with our Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships betting preview.

Last 5 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships Champions

• 2020: Simona Halep
• 2021: Garbine Muguruza
• 2022: Jelena Ostapenko
• 2023: Barbora Krejcikova
• 2024: Jasmine Paolini

Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships Betting Odds

• Aryna Sabalenka (+340)
• Iga Swiatek (+430)
• Coco Gauff (+650)
• Elena Rybakina (+850)
• Belinda Bencic (29-1)
• Qinwen Zheng (29-1)
• Karolina Muchova (31-1)
• Jessica Pegula (31-1)
• Amanda Anisimova (34-1)
• Jelena Ostapenko (34-1)

(For the rest of the odds, head over to FanDuel Sportsbook)

Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships Conditions

After the super-slow conditions in Doha, things will be a little quicker this week. The outdoor hard courts in Dubai are considered medium-fast. Tennis Abstract’s court speed rankings from last year’s men’s event in Dubai had it with a Surface Speed of 1.14. That factors in Ace Rate compared to a tour-average surface, so 14 percent more aces occurred here. That’s very comparable to this year’s Australian Open, which had a Surface Speed of 1.12.

Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships Players To Watch

Qinwen Zheng (29-1): With conditions being somewhat similar to the Australian Open, this is a pretty good bounce-back opportunity for Zheng. She made the final in Melbourne in 2024. The 2024 Olympic gold medalist is off to a miserable start this year, but elite players can figure things out pretty quickly. The reality is that Zheng’s ability to pummel the ball from the baseline makes her a dangerous opponent in quicker hard-court conditions, and she has now had a good amount of time to play her way into form and get comfortable in the new season.

Many will look at her loss to Ons Jabeur in Doha as a major disappointment, but the Tunisian is a Top 10 talent. But now that Jabeur is playing at a high level, there’s no shame in losing to her in slower conditions—especially when the Tunisian is a fan favorite. With that in mind, don’t get too carried away in thinking Zheng is struggling. She’s going to flip the switch soon, and a run here is definitely within reason.

Jasmine Paolini (42-1): Paolini lost 6-2, 6-2 to Ostapenko in Doha, a loss that seemed concerning at the time. But it aged better as the Latvian went deeper in the tournament, so it’s probably not something to be too worried about. The fact of the matter is that Paolini is the defending champion in Dubai, so we know her game translates very well here. Also, like Zheng, it’s only a matter of time before Paolini starts to look like a threat on tour again. You don’t go 42-21, win two titles and make two Grand Slam finals and then disappear the following year. This is about the time of the year in which the rust wears off and the players come out to play.

Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships Pick To Win

Iga Swiatek (+430): I hate to back same player two weeks in a row, and that’s especially true considering Swiatek wasn’t overly impressive in Doha. She had a lot of trouble beating Linda Noskova in the Round of 16, and her showing against Ostapenko in the semifinals was borderline embarrassing. However, Swiatek was the runner-up here in 2023, and it’s not insignificant that these courts play similar to how the courts in Melbourne played this year. I thought this year’s Australian Open marked the best Swiatek has ever played at the event. She just ran into a scorching hot Madison Keys in the semifinals, and she barely lost to the eventual champion.

Also, for those worried about a sixth meeting with Ostapenko, I find it very hard to believe that she’ll run into that problem again. The two players are in opposite halves of the bracket, and I just don’t see Ostapenko getting to the final. The more immediate threats are Zheng, Mirra Andreeva and Rybakina, who are all in Swiatek’s half of the draw. However, given recent form, Swiatek is worth a play at these odds. If she faces Sabalenka in the final, this ticket should be hedge-able.