Pick of the Day: Alexander Zverev vs. Carlos Alcaraz, Roland Garros

On Sunday, June 9, Carlos Alcaraz goes for his third Grand Slam title when he faces Alexander Zverev in the Roland Garros final. Zverev will be looking to win his maiden major, and he’s playing in his first Grand Slam final since the 2020 US Open. That year, Zverev squandered a two-set lead and fell in a dramatic five-setter against Dominic Thiem. But the German is in great form right now, as he won a title in Rome and has knocked off some great opponents in Paris—including Rafael Nadal. Zverev is hungry for this victory, and he’s simply too talented to end his career without a major. He has to be thinking that this is one of the best chances he’ll have.

Unfortunately for him, all the hunger in the world might not be enough for him to take down Alcaraz on Court Philippe-Chatrier.

Alcaraz is too big of a favorite to play on the moneyline, but laying 1.5 sets seems like a great option. Zverev beat Alcaraz at the Australian Open, and is 2-1 against the Spaniard at the Slams. But Alcaraz played a sloppy match in Melbourne and he knows it. He was trying to play flashy when it didn’t make much sense to do so, and he wasn’t going after his opponent’s weaknesses. Zverev has one of the worst forehands—relatively speaking—of anybody in the Top 25, but Alcaraz wasn’t targeting that side of the court enough. Well, when the two of them met at Indian Wells a few months later, the Spaniard peppered that side of the court.

If Alcaraz goes to the Zverev forehand enough, he’s going to extract a lot of errors from the German’s racquet. And even when Zverev is hitting that shot with accuracy, he’s not doing so with pace. That means Alcaraz should get some great opportunities to put shots away when Zverev just guides his forehand over the net.

It’s no coincidence that Alcaraz pounded Zverev when they played in Indian Wells. That’s a hard-court event that plays extremely slow, almost mimicking the conditions in Paris. Well, slower courts take away some of the power Zverev gets on his serve, and they also give Alcaraz the ability to stay in rallies. The clay also makes Alcaraz’s variety a little more dangerous, as his topspin forehand is a huge weapon. He also has the ability to flatten it out for winners, while also mixing in some drop shots.

All in all, we’ve been waiting for Alcaraz to break through and win his first title at Roland Garros, and it feels like it’s going to happen this year. And I trust the Spaniard to do it in four sets or less. People have always said that Alcaraz is going to peak on slower courts, and that’s a big part of the reason why he is unbeatable at Indian Wells. Now it’s Alcaraz’s time to take that dominance over to Paris, where he just triumphed in a five-set match against world No. 1 Jannik Sinner. That match might have had its ups and downs for Alcaraz, but he came out on top in the end. He should be less nervy in the final, especially against a weaker opponent. And overall, I don’t see him allowing the German to get the better of him at another major. The Australian Open felt like a bit of a fluke.

Pick: Alcaraz -1.5 Sets (-139)