Casper Ruud (40-1): Ruud is another player I’ll have my eye on this week. The Norwegian absolutely collapsed in the third set of his meeting with Marcos Giron in Indian Wells, and it’s odd he hasn’t found more success on that event's high-bouncing hard courts. Now, he moves to a tournament that you’d think he’d struggle in, but he does have the ability to put together a deep run here. He made the final in 2022, and he gave Alcaraz a run for his money. Ruud has also played some good indoor hard-court tennis at the ATP Finals throughout his career, so why can’t he excel in quicker conditions?
Ruud is a better server than he is given credit for, his backhand continues to improve and his forehand is one of the bigger weapons in the sport. He just needs to find a way to put it all together again, and his conditioning has to be up to par. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he withdrew from Acapulco with an illness and then looked sluggish late in his only match in Indian Wells. Hopefully the extra two weeks gave him the time he needs to be healthy, as he has a manageable draw up until a potential meeting with Tommy Paul in the fourth round, and Alcaraz in the quarterfinals.
Miami Open Pick To Win
Carlos Alcaraz (+210): At the BNP Paribas Open, I was afraid to back Alcaraz because of a potential quarter-final matchup with Djokovic. I really don’t like the way the Spaniard matches up with the 24-time Grand Slam champion right now. Alcaraz a little too mistake-prone, and Djokovic takes advantage of how up and down his play. But I’m not going to just expect a Djokovic-Alcaraz matchup in Miami, as the Serbian would need to make the semifinals. I don’t really see that happening at this point. It seems more likely that he’ll find his game towards the end of the clay-court swing, which is the pattern we’ve seen from him as he has gotten older.
The other matchups to worry about for Alcaraz likely won’t come until much later in the tournament. Paul and Ruud are the toughest players in his quarter, but I’d like Alcaraz to come out on top against them. And Draper, who just significantly outplayed Alcaraz in Indian Wells, is in the other half of the draw. Draper is also in a pretty tough section of the draw, and I’m not sure I see him responding well to the biggest title of his career. So, I’m having a hard time not backing Alcaraz to win this for the second time, even if quicker hard courts don’t suit him as well as others. With Sinner suspended, there’s just not many players that can go out and out-play Alcaraz. And he should be plenty motivated after what happened in the desert.
