All in all, it seemed like a good day at the office.

Two months ago, if you had to guess which of the game’s best young players would be going for the Sunshine Double, you probably would have said Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz. But its the new world No. 6, Jack Draper, who is looking to etch his name in history. Draper went through a gauntlet to win his first 1000-level title last week, beating Joao Fonseca, Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, Alcaraz and Holger Rune. It was an outrageous run from a player that has always felt like he was bound to get himself to the top of the sport. Now, it feels like Draper’s body is finally giving him a chance to reach his potential, and it’ll be fun to see how he looks in Miami.

But Alcaraz is the one that enters this tournament as the betting favorite, at BetMGM, and several other players will be pushing for hard-court success before the start of clay season. That said, let’s get into all of it with our 2025 Miami Open betting preview—in this edition of Game, Set, Bet.

What's the best plus-money play on Daniil Medvedev in Miami?

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Recent Miami Open Winners

  • 2019: Roger Federer
  • 2020: No tournament (COVID-19)
  • 2021: Hubert Hurkacz
  • 2022: Carlos Alcaraz
  • 2023: Daniil Medvedev
  • 2024: Jannik Sinner

Miami Open Betting Odds

  • Carlos Alcaraz (+210)
  • Jack Draper (+900)
  • Novak Djokovic (10-1)
  • Alexander Zverev (11-1)
  • Daniil Medvedev (14-1)
  • Alex de Minaur (20-1)
  • Ben Shelton (22-1)
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas (25-1)
  • Holger Rune (28-1)
  • Taylor Fritz (28-1)

(For the rest of the odds, head over to BetMGM)

Carlos Alcaraz is still searching for his first outdoor hardcourt title of 2025.

Carlos Alcaraz is still searching for his first outdoor hardcourt title of 2025.

Miami Open Court Conditions

There was talk that the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells would play much faster this year, as the tournament switched to the same Laykold courts used at the Miami Open and US Open. Well, that turned out to be just that—talk. Some players felt that the tournament played slower than ever.

Things will speed up this week in South Beach. Last year, Tennis Abstract’s Surface Speed rating had Indian Wells at 0.84. That means the Ace Rate in the tournament was 16% below a tour-average event. Miami had a Surface Speed rating of 1.10 in 2024, or an Ace Rate 10% higher than the tour-average tournament. Big servers shouldn’t be broken as easily, and powerful baseliners shouldn’t have to worry as much about massive groundstrokes coming back. We’re going to see lower bounces and quicker points.

Miami Open Players To Watch

Novak Djokovic (10-1): Will the real Novak please stand up? (Please stand up, please stand up?) The 24-time Grand Slam champion is off to a strange start this year. Djokovic proved he still has a spot at the table at the top of the men’s game in beating Alcaraz in the Australian Open quarterfinals. But he injured his hamstring in that match and had to pull out after dropping the first set against Zverev in the semifinals. He's since lost in his first match in back-to-back tournaments.

Djokovic has a reasonable draw up until a potential quarterfinal showdown with Medvedev, and he’d likely take on Alcaraz in the semis if he prevails. Djokovic won this event three straight times from 2014 to 2016, and he’s a six-time Miami Open champion. We know his game clicks in quicker conditions, as evidenced by his dominance at the Australian Open and Wimbledon. We just need to see him find that gear again.

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Casper Ruud (40-1): Ruud is another player I’ll have my eye on this week. The Norwegian absolutely collapsed in the third set of his meeting with Marcos Giron in Indian Wells, and it’s odd he hasn’t found more success on that event's high-bouncing hard courts. Now, he moves to a tournament that you’d think he’d struggle in, but he does have the ability to put together a deep run here. He made the final in 2022, and he gave Alcaraz a run for his money. Ruud has also played some good indoor hard-court tennis at the ATP Finals throughout his career, so why can’t he excel in quicker conditions?

Ruud is a better server than he is given credit for, his backhand continues to improve and his forehand is one of the bigger weapons in the sport. He just needs to find a way to put it all together again, and his conditioning has to be up to par. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he withdrew from Acapulco with an illness and then looked sluggish late in his only match in Indian Wells. Hopefully the extra two weeks gave him the time he needs to be healthy, as he has a manageable draw up until a potential meeting with Tommy Paul in the fourth round, and Alcaraz in the quarterfinals.

Miami Open Pick To Win

Carlos Alcaraz (+210): At the BNP Paribas Open, I was afraid to back Alcaraz because of a potential quarter-final matchup with Djokovic. I really don’t like the way the Spaniard matches up with the 24-time Grand Slam champion right now. Alcaraz a little too mistake-prone, and Djokovic takes advantage of how up and down his play. But I’m not going to just expect a Djokovic-Alcaraz matchup in Miami, as the Serbian would need to make the semifinals. I don’t really see that happening at this point. It seems more likely that he’ll find his game towards the end of the clay-court swing, which is the pattern we’ve seen from him as he has gotten older.

The other matchups to worry about for Alcaraz likely won’t come until much later in the tournament. Paul and Ruud are the toughest players in his quarter, but I’d like Alcaraz to come out on top against them. And Draper, who just significantly outplayed Alcaraz in Indian Wells, is in the other half of the draw. Draper is also in a pretty tough section of the draw, and I’m not sure I see him responding well to the biggest title of his career. So, I’m having a hard time not backing Alcaraz to win this for the second time, even if quicker hard courts don’t suit him as well as others. With Sinner suspended, there’s just not many players that can go out and out-play Alcaraz. And he should be plenty motivated after what happened in the desert.