Despite 12 double faults, Keys saved 12 of the 15 break points she faced against Mertens to avenge a 2024 US Open third-round loss to the Belgian.

Mirra Andreeva has gobbled up the last two 1000-level titles, and the 17-year-old is now the talk of the tennis world. Many are wondering whether she can win a third, at the Miami Open. Aryna Sabalenka, who lost to Andreeva in the BNP Paribas Open final, will surely be looking for revenge. Iga Swiatek is desperate for some hard-court success, so the Pole will be locked in. There’s a handful of other players that have what it takes to win this tournament, and you never know who else will get in on the action. The last two champions here, Petra Kvitova and Danielle Collins, were a little bit off the grid, so everybody should have hope that they can win the last big hard-court tournament before switching over to clay.

Let’s get into all of it with our 2025 Miami Open betting preview.

>>> Watch the Miami Open live on the Tennis Channel app.

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Recent Miami Open Winners

  • 2019: Ashleigh Barty
  • 2020: No tournament (COVID-19)
  • 2021: Ashleigh Barty
  • 2022: Iga Swiatek
  • 2023: Petra Kvitova
  • 2024: Danielle Collins
Danielle Collins took down Elena Rybakina in the 2024 Miami Open final.

Danielle Collins took down Elena Rybakina in the 2024 Miami Open final.

Miami Open Betting Odds

  • Aryna Sabalenka (+350)
  • Iga Swiatek (+400)
  • Mirra Andreeva (+650)
  • Elena Rybakina (10-1)
  • Coco Gauff (12-1)
  • Madison Keys (14-1)
  • Jessica Pegula (20-1)
  • Belinda Bencic (28-1)
  • Qinwen Zheng (28-1)
  • Naomi Osaka (40-1)

For the rest of the odds, head over to BetMGM

Miami Open Court Conditions

There was talk that the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells would play much faster this year, as the tournament switched to the same Laykold courts used at the Miami Open and US Open. Well, that turned out to be just that—talk. Some players felt that the tournament played slower than ever.

Things will speed up this week in South Beach. Last year, Tennis Abstract’s Surface Speed rating had Indian Wells at 0.84. That means the Ace Rate in the tournament was 16% below a tour-average event. Miami had a Surface Speed rating of 1.10 in 2024, or an Ace Rate 10% higher than the tour-average tournament. Big servers shouldn’t be broken as easily, and powerful baseliners shouldn’t have to worry as much about massive groundstrokes coming back. We’re going to see lower bounces and quicker points.

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Miami Open Players To Watch

Elena Rybakina (10-1): Rybakina has faced Andreeva in back-to-back events, but they’re on opposite sides of the bracket in Miami. Despite those losses, I've been impressed with Rybakina’s level of late. And I think there’s a real shot we see the 25-year-old go deep in Miami again. We really only remember the champions, but Rybakina has been to back-to-back Miami Open finals. The super-fast conditions, with low-bouncing courts, really favor her big serve. Over the last 52 weeks, only Swiatek has a higher hold percentage than Rybakina’s 78.2%. Rybakina also has a solid baseline game for these courts.

Her draw is tough: She’ll likely face Qinwen Zheng in the fourth round, and Sabalenka in the quarterfinals. But Zheng isn’t the player she was last season, and Rybakina has always played Sabalenka tough—she has won two of their last three matches.

Ekaterina Alexandrova (50-1): When looking at 1000-level events, it’s always fun to try and pick out a sleeper. BetMGM has Alexandrova at +800 to win Quarter 2, and I think there’s a reasonable chance she can. She's coming off back-to-back early exits, but I believe fatigue was a factor in her match against Veronika Kudermetova in Dubai. Alexandrova had just won a title in Linz and then went all the way to the semifinals in Doha. That’s a lot of tennis in a short stretch. Also, I don’t really consider Indian Wells much when looking at Miami, so her loss to Polina Kudermetova in the first round means little to me.

What I like about Alexandrova is that she’s aggressive and has solid serving and returning numbers. She’s also very good at playing quick-strike tennis. The conditions in Miami should suit her extremely well. She made the semifinals here last year, losing to eventual champion Collins. That came right after wins over Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula. Alexandrova is more dangerous than you think.

HOT SHOT: Ekaterina Alexandrova shows off backhand angle return winner in first return game against Veronika Kudermetova

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Miami Open Pick To Win

Madison Keys (14-1): I think Sabalenka or Rybakina will win Miami—I just love the way their games translate to these quicker conditions, and I think we’re due to see one of the big guns prevail. However, Keys’ playing style is very similar to those two. The American is also available at longer odds than both, and she definitely has an easier draw. Keys could have a fourth-round date with Clara Tauson, and she might also have to face Swiatek in a potential quarterfinal. But Keys is a little better than Tauson as a baseliner, and she beat Swiatek in similar conditions in Melbourne. I’d like her chances of doing it again with a true home-court advantage. Keys also played very well at Indian Wells last week—don’t let the one Sabalenka performance fool you. This also presents an opportunity to hedge.