Tiafoe is 13-23 in quarterfinal matches throughout his career.

We don’t often give out parlays, but let’s roll with two of the crowd favorites at the Mubadala Citi DC Open on Thursday. At plus-money odds, you can get Sebastian Korda to beat Thanasi Kokkinakis, and Frances Tiafoe to beat Aleksandar Kovacevic. I like both of them to get the job done, but I don’t want to deal with significant juice to back them. Instead, I’ll bank both players together for a favorable payout.

For Korda, the reasoning is pretty straightforward. He’s coming off an easy straight-set win over Cristian Garin—just an hour and 12 minutes. Meanwhile, Kokkinakis needed two hours and 15 minutes in his three-set win over Max Purcell in the opening round. That was a physical battle between two heavy hitters. Kokkinakis then got involved in another slugfest with Aleksandar Vukic, winning 6-4, 7-6 (4) in an hour and 51 minutes. Fatigue shouldn’t catch up to players too much this early in a tournament, but as usual, it has been hot and humid in D.C. If Kokkinakis is any bit less than 100% health, or lacking in energy, he could suffer.

Korda is also 2-0 against Kokkinakis, and the American hasn’t dropped a set. Both matches were played on hard courts, too. Kokkinakis is obviously a very big server, but he has doesn't do much else at a high level. That is going to make it difficult for him to beat a player with the ball-striking skills of Korda.

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As Tiafoe goes, it just feels like the American is ready to turn things around. Tiafoe has struggled to find his best stuff in 2024, but he played very well at Wimbledon. And I don’t think his loss to Yoshihito Nishioka at Atlanta is as bad as it looks on paper. Nishioka was scorching hot all week, and a very good baseliner like that is a tough matchup for Tiafoe. He should have a lot more success against Kovacevic, who is more erratic.

Kovacevic has a good serve and can be dangerous from the baseline when he’s on. But Tiafoe is a solid returner and will be energized playing in his home tournament. I’m expecting him to overwhelm Kovacevic with his all-court ability, as well as his impressive game at the net. Tiafoe should also target Kovacevic’s backhand, which is pretty but can occasionally leak errors.

On top of that, Kovacevic will be immersed in a very pro-Tiafoe atmosphere. The majority of D.C. fans want to see Tiafoe win this event, and get going heading into the thick of hard-court season. I think they'll come away happy, and you'll come away richer.

Pick: Korda/Tiafoe ML Parlay (+113)