Pick of the Day: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Carlos Alcaraz, Miami Open

Carlos Alcaraz is looking to complete the Sunshine Double this week. Over the last three weeks, the Spaniard has been at the absolute peak of his powers. I like his chances of beating Grigor Dimitrov in the Miami Open quarterfinals on Thursday; who wouldn't? And just like each of Carlitos' three wins in Miami, it will happen in straight sets.

Dimitrov beat Alcaraz in Shanghai last year, but that was right in the middle of Alcaraz’s post-Wimbledon lull. Alcaraz had won three matches in a row against Dimitrov before that, and all came in straight sets. Now that Alcaraz is back to that level—and possibly better—he should be able to make somewhat easy work of Dimitrov. That’s especially true with the way Dimitrov is playing right now. Of course, the Bulgarian is in the quarterfinals in South Beach, but he needed three sets to beat Alejandro Tabilo in his first match. He also might have lost to Hubert Hurkacz in last round’s three-set battle, but the Pole touched the net on a key point in a third-set tiebreaker.

Alcaraz is also improving as a server, which was one of his only weaknesses. The Spaniard has a hold percentage of 89.1% this season, and that’s easily a career-high mark. When you combine that with his elite 35.4% break percentage, you’re talking about a player that is borderline flawless. Dimitrov is a pretty good server and returner in his own right, but Alcaraz has him beat on both counts, and he’s also better from the forehand and backhand wings.

There just isn’t much Dimitrov can do to make Alcaraz uncomfortable. Maybe the Bulgarian will look to his slice to try and make Alcaraz play a lot of extra balls; forcing Alcaraz to go unnecessarily big is something people have had success with in the past. But Alcaraz has been doing a good job of avoiding costly mistakes, while also continuing to play aggressive tennis.

Pick: Alcaraz To Win 2-0 (-150)