Pick of the Day: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Daniil Medvedev, Indian Wells

Grigor Dimitrov has played brilliantly in Indian Wells thus far, defeating Alexandre Muller and Adrian Mannarino without dropping a set. The Bulgarian will now look to advance to the quarterfinals, but his next opponent is Australian Open runner-up Daniil Medvedev, who just so happens to be coming off a run to the final in this event last year.

Medvedev is usually reliable with his serve, but he has had a lot of trouble holding in the desert. Medvedev was only broken once in his match against Roberto Carballes Baena in the opening round, but Sebastian Korda broke him seven times in their meeting on Monday. That’s going to be an issue for Medvedev, as Dimitrov’s break percentage (23.9%) was higher in 2023 than Korda’s (20.7%) was. If Medvedev can’t find a way to lock in and win some easy service games, this match has the potential to get pretty ugly.

The reason Medvevev’s serving will be important is because he might have a hard time getting to the Dimitrov serve. Of course, Medvedev is one of the best returners in the world, and he has the fifth-highest break percentage on the ATP Tour over the last 52 weeks. But Dimitrov has a hold percentage of 90.4% through 16 matches in 2024. He has found a really nice groove with the ball on his racquet, whether it’s serving up unreturnable balls or just setting himself up well for the rally. The latter is important to note, as Dimitrov has won 71.5% of his service points excluding aces and double faults. That’s the highest mark on tour, and nobody else is at 70.0% or higher.

Dimitrov's variety from the baseline will also give him a real edge in longer rallies. Medvedev is a wall along the baseline, and he’s going to be hard to get the ball by. But the Russian is the first to admit that the conditions in Indian Wells don’t bring out the best in his game. He hits a lot of very flat shots and doesn’t change things up very much. But Dimitrov has it all from back there. His slice backhand should be a huge weapon in this match, and he also has the ability to hit with topspin, or flatten things out to go for power. In these difficult conditions, Dimitrov’s ability to keep Medvedev guessing will be very beneficial.

It’s also worth pointing out that Dimitrov snapped a three-match losing streak to Medvedev in Paris last year. He came away with a 6-3, 6-7 (4), 7-6 (2) win in an absolute war. That should give him the confidence he needs to go out and win this match, especially knowing that Medvedev is nowhere near his top level right now.

Pick: Dimitrov To Win (+156)