How much really separates Holger Rune and Novak Djokovic right now?

Novak Djokovic has been tested by Jacob Fearnley and Alexei Popyrin in his last two Wimbledon matches. Now, the 24-time Grand Slam champion will face the uber-talented Holger Rune in the round of 16. This will be their sixth meeting, with Rune and it's been a very competitive head-to-head series: Rune is 2-3 against Djokovic, and the Serb has never defeated the Dane in straight sets. And I like the youngster’s chances of keeping this one close, too. I'm not only backing Rune to cover the game spread; I also think he's worthy of a moneyline sprinkle.

Through three matches, Djokovic hasn’t looked visibly bothered by his surgically repaired knee (just three weeks ago). However, he has looked a lot like the up-and-down player he was before the injury. Before arriving in London, Djokovic was 18-8 on the season. Even with his three wins at Wimbledon, his 21-8 record is his lowest winning percentage (72.4%) in a season since 2006. Djokovic’s hold percentage is also down at 82.7%, which is the lowest it has been since 2010. He’s just not getting through service games as easily as he used to. When you combine that with his slight drop in baseline prowess, it's not hard to figure out why he’s more beatable than ever.

Djokovic has been fortunate to have played some weak competition to this point—even his C+ game has been enough to get by. But that won’t fly against Rune, who has a big serve, can hit every shot in the book from the baseline, and has supreme confidence in his ability. Rune is one of the few players in tennis that steps on a court with Djokovic and feels like he is the better player.

Rune has also done a good job of beating allegations of “poor fitness.” It has been quite some time since his body has completely failed him in a Grand Slam. Rune played a physical five-set match against Quentin Halys in the third round, and he played his best tennis in the fifth set. As long as he doesn't fall apart here, I really like his chances to cash.

All in all, I’m just not sure there is much that separates these two players right now. So, I’m taking the games—and I’m also putting a little something on Rune to win. This match could serve as the Dane’s big breakthrough.

Pick of the Day: Rune +4.5 Games (-115) & Rune ML (+250 - sprinkle)