How to bet the Barbora Krejcikova vs. Jasmine Paolini Wimbledon final

On Saturday, July 13, Barbora Krejcikova will face Jasmine Paolini for the Wimbledon title. Krejcikova went through a gauntlet to get to this point. Her last three wins have come against Danielle Collins, Jelena Ostapenko and 2022 Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina. Paolini has had a tough road herself, defeating Bianca Andreescu, Madison Keys, Emma Navarro and Donna Vekic in her last four matches. Now, the Italian will be searching for her first Grand Slam title—after finishing runner-up at Roland Garros—and probably feels like she should win this match.

But Krejcikova is a major champion and is starting to recapture her Slam-winning form. Don't overlook that minor detail.

Krejcikova's victory over Rybakina is being portrayed as a shock, but it wasn't wholly unexpected. Krejcikova, a former world No. 2, possesses the talent to compete at an elite level; she has just had some bad luck in the health department. Now, despite being ranked No. 32 in the world, Krejcikova is favored to beat the seventh-ranked player on tour.

While many might bet on Paolini due to her Top 10 ranking and recent run at Roland Garros, I’m not falling for the trap of grabbing her at plus-money odds. I just think there’s a little too much that Krejcikova can do to throw Paolini off her game.

For starters, Krejcikova is a better server than Paolini. The Czech has held at roughly 80.0% on grass in her career, so she’s going to put her head down and quickly get through some service games. Meanwhile, Paolini can be shaky with the ball on her racquet, and Krejcikova is a good enough returner to make her pay.

Krejcikova is also remarkable at using her slice to control points—which is massive on grass. Paolini defends the court at a high level, but Krejcikova will be pointed in how she moves the Italian around Centre. And when she has her in compromising situations, she’ll pounce with winners or come to the net to finish points.

It’s also going to be interesting to see how Paolini handles her nerves here. She didn’t struggle with them very much against Iga Swiatek at Roland Garros, but that’s because nothing was expected of her there. People believe she will win this match, and there’s a different type of pressure that comes with those expectations. Meanwhile, Krejcikova has won on this stage before. Not only does she have a singles title at a major, but she’s also a seven-time Grand Slam doubles champion (and has another three Grand Slam titles in mixed doubles).

This just feels like a match in which Krejcikova should be able to utilize her full suite of skills to overcome her opponent, and you don’t have to lay much juice to take it.

Pick: Krejcikova To Win (-138)