How to bet the Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic Wimbledon final rematch

Last year, Carlos Alcaraz earned a 1-6, 7-6 (6), 6-1, 3-6, 6-4 win over Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon final. Now, Alcaraz will have another shot at claiming a major over Djokovic, as the two will meet in a Wimbledon final rematch on Sunday.

The fact that Djokovic is in the final after having had surgery early in June is wildly impressive. But he was able to give it a go, and he’s now one win away from his 25th Grand Slam title. The only issue is that we haven’t seen much that suggests Djokovic is playing at the level he was at in 2023, when he won his last three majors. Djokovic struggled in wins over Jacob Fearnley and Alexei Popyrin early in the tournament. He then faced Holger Rune in the Round of 16.—a match that was supposed to test the 37-year-old. Djokovic played great, but Rune played one of the worst matches of his life. So, it's actually hard to give the Serb too much credit.

Djokovic then got a walkover against Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals, which was fortunate considering the Australian is a good grass-court player that plays a physical brand of tennis. That would have been a really nice test for Djokovic.

Djokovic’s semi-final win over Lorenzo Musetti was really the only match in which he was tested and played at an extremely high level. Musetti came out firing in the match, but Djokovic locked things down late in the first set. He also battled back from a break down in the second set and outclassed the Italian in a tiebreaker. All in all, it was a vintage Djokovic performance.

But is one win over a player ranked inside the Top 15 enough to back Nole over Carlitos?

Alcaraz’s play has been up and down throughout this tournament, but he has still earned wins over Frances Tiafoe, Ugo Humbert, Tommy Paul and Daniil Medvedev. Alcaraz’s road to the final has been a lot tougher than Djokovic’s. After throwing away the opening sets against both Paul and Medvedev, Alcaraz was able to lock in and play some flawless tennis. The Spaniard knows when he is in trouble and finds ways to focus. And when Alcaraz is cutting down on his careless mistakes, he’s pretty close to unbeatable.

With Alcaraz coming off two losses in a row against Djokovic (in the Cincinatti final and ATP Finals semifinals), don’t be surprised if he goes into grind mode from the first ball.

I would have been prepared to back Djokovic against anybody else in the final, but beating an in-form Alcaraz just a month after surgery is too tough an ask. Alcaraz can hang with Djokovic in longer points, but he also has the power required to finish points quickly, even against one of the sport’s all-time baseline defenders.

I also think that Alcaraz’s ability to utilize the drop shot will frustrate Djokovic. The Serbian’s knee hasn’t looked like a problem in this tournament, but there’s no way he’ll want to get up and chase down a bunch of drop shots. Unfortunately for him, Alcaraz has one of the best droppers in the world.

Overall, I just can’t think of many reasons to lay off Alcaraz in this spot. Djokovic will be hungry for another Grand Slam title—and I do think he'll get another soon—but Alcaraz will be eager to turn the tables on their rivalry (currently 3-2, Djokovic) and build upon his already impressive legacy.

Pick: Alcaraz To Win (-145)