Game, Set, Bet: Indian Wells Men's Betting Preview

We won’t see Jannik Sinner at the 2025 BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, but this still promises to be a compelling and competitive event. Carlos Alcaraz is back and looking to three-peat in the desert, and he’ll be joined by Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev and many other top pros.

What's the best way to bet this tournament? That's what this edition of Game, Set, Bet—presented by BetMGM—is for.

Last 5 BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells Winners

• 2019: Dominic Thiem
• 2020: No tournament (COVID-19)
• 2021: Cameron Norrie
• 2022: Taylor Fritz
• 2023: Carlos Alcaraz
• 2024: Carlos Alcaraz

BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells Betting Odds

• Carlos Alcaraz (+200)
• Novak Djokovic (+650)
• Alexander Zverev (+700)
• Daniil Medvedev (12-1)
• Stefanos Tsitsipas (18-1)
• Taylor Fritz (18-1)
• Andrey Rublev (25-1)
• Jack Draper (28-1)
• Alex de Minaur (28-1)
• Casper Ruud (33-1)

👉 For the rest of the odds, head over to BetMGM

BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells Court Conditions

This tournament will be played on a Laykold hard court for the first time ever. Normally, Indian Wells plays with a medium-slow Category 2 court when it comes to ITF Court Pace Rating. However, it has probably been on the slower side of that scale. Tennis Abstract had last year’s event with a Surface Speed of 0.84, which means that players hit 16% fewer aces here than on a tour-average surface.

This year, people are expecting things to speed up quite a bit. Laykold is what is used at the Miami Open and US Open, and both of those events play much faster than Indian Wells normally does. Several players have noted that things felt a lot quicker in their practice sessions. However, it looks like servers are still struggling to rack up easy holds in qualifiers, so I’m not reading too much into the changes. Even if things speed up a little, this is a tournament in which all-court players should thrive.

BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells Players To Watch

Taylor Fritz (18-1): Which version of Fritz will show up to the Indian Wells Tennis Garden? The American won this tournament in 2022, and he was runner-up at the US Open last year. He has proven that his best tennis is good enough to beat pretty much anyone. But this year, Fritz hasn’t looked anything like the player that achieved either of those big results. He comes into this tournament after having lost three of his last five, and one of those was a disappointing straight-set loss to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Delray Beach. Fritz then backed out of Acapulco, citing an injury he has been dealing with to start the new season.

If Fritz isn’t playing like himself, he’ll be on Upset Watch early on. However, if he finds his game, he has the ability to win this tournament. The slower conditions in Indian Wells allow Fritz to do solid work as a returner, and also help him grind along the baseline—and his serve is a weapon anywhere. So, you can’t rule out a run, even though he’s in the same half as Alcaraz and Djokovic.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (18-1): Is Tsitsipas back? Perhaps this is tennis’ version of college football’s ‘Is Texas back?’ Tsitsipas has been disappointing as a hard-court player in recent seasons, but he won his first 500-level title last week in Dubai. Along the way, he earned wins over Lorenzo Sonego, Karen Khachanov, Matteo Berrettini, Tallon Griekspoor and Felix Auger-Aliassime. It was really an impressive run for Tsitsipas, who also underwent a racquet change. Well, whether it was that or a mentality change, Tsitsipas looked like a new guy in Dubai. His serve and forehand looked really sharp throughout the week, and he also hit the backhand with more confidence.

That shot will never be a strength for the former world No. 3, but he will always be a threat to go deep as long as he’s not beating himself from that side of the court. And realistically, with the switch to Laykold courts, Tsitsipas can be a factor in the desert—especially since he would avoid Djokovic and Alcaraz until the finals.

BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells Pick To Win

Novak Djokovic (+650): While the 24-time Grand Slam champion’s draw is tough, the same can be said for pretty much anyone in a 1000-level event. These fields are stacked. But ultimately, it’s hard not to like Djokovic to find a way to win in a Sinner-less field. If the Serbian can get by Alcaraz in the quarterfinals, do you really see anybody else having the mental toughness and confidence required to out-duel him in a big match? I don’t.

As far as the Alcaraz matchup goes, I’m going to need to see the Spaniard beat Djokovic again before backing him to do so. Alcaraz has had no answer for Djokovic’s serve lately, with the slider out wide being unreturnable at the Olympics and then again at the Australian Open. It also seems like Djokovic’s ability to hit consistently deep, flat strokes eventually leads to Alcaraz errors in longer rallies. The 37-year-old has a mental edge over his younger opponent that I’m willing to put some money behind.