Indian Wells Betting Preview: Clara Tauson vs. Mirra Andreeva

On Sunday, March 9, 17-year-old sensation Mirra Andreeva will take on Clara Tauson at Indian Wells. This is a rematch of last week's Dubai final, which Andreeva won her first career 1000-level title. That 7-6 (1), 6-1 match was somewhat interesting, as Tauson was clearly running on fumes late in the opening set. That then spilled over and made for an uncompetitive second set. I don’t see fatigue or poor health getting in Tauson’s way this time around. However, I do like Andreeva to cover the game spread.

I’m not sure I see Andreeva winning this match in straight sets, as Tauson is a highly talented player. However, these conditions should really favor Andreeva, and I’d be surprised if we don’t see at least one lopsided set. That should be enough for Andreeva to cover a pretty small, 3.5-game number.

Tauson relies so much on her big serve and her ability to crunch winners while standing with somewhat flat feet. However, the slow, gritty courts at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden require some mobility and variety. Andreeva should have an easier time than normal returning Tauson’s serves and tracking down some of her heavy groundstrokes. Once she does that and eventually resets points, things are going to favor her quite a bit. Tauson wants to win points in the 0-4 shot range, but Andreeva is going to actively look to extend rallies, and should have success doing so.

Of course, Andreeva is also going to need to find ways to hit through slow conditions herself. Given what we’ve seen in the past few months, it’s hard to worry too much about that. Andreeva has always had the ability to go big from the backhand wing, but she’s more consistent than ever from the forehand side. I don’t really have any doubts about her ability to find winners, especially with more time to set her feet and let it rip.

I feel similarly about her ability to rack up holds. Her first-service points won percentage is up from 64.2% in 2024 to 68.0% in 2025, and she has a career-high hold percentage of 73.7% this year. She’s getting through her service games with less problems, which isn’t surprising given the improvements on the forehand side. She has clearly packed on some muscle and added a little power.

All in all, it’s hard not to like Andreeva to come through with a win here, and 3.5 games isn’t a lot to cover if she does.

Pick: Andreeva -3.5 Games (-110)