Indian Wells Betting Preview: Jack Draper vs. Taylor Fritz

Taylor Fritz won the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells back in 2022, beating Rafael Nadal 6-3, 7-6 (5) in the final. The American is clearly capable of playing some high-level tennis here. However, Fritz had lost two of his previous three matches before arriving in the desert this week, and he has been dealing with some injuries to start 2025. So, this isn’t exactly the version of the American we're used to. With that in mind, it’s hard not to like Jack Draper to beat Fritz in the round of 16.

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Realistically, there isn’t much that separates these guys when both are playing their best tennis. That might sound crazy considering Fritz has some big titles to his name, along with a run to the final at last year’s US Open. But Draper has a peak Elo rating of 2055.5 and Frtiz’s peak Elo rating is 2040.8.

Draper doesn’t seem to get the type of praise that other up-and-coming stars receive, but he’s very much an elite young talent in this sport. And when discussing players that can threaten Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz for majors over the next 10 years or so, it’s not outrageous to suggest that the list should start with Draper over Joao Fonseca or Holger Rune. Also, not only is Draper’s peak Elo rating slightly higher than Fritz’s, but his 2025 Elo rating is much higher. Draper has a Top 10 score in 2025 and Fritz is all the way down at 38th.

Fritz is definitely a little stronger when it comes to serving, but that doesn’t matter all that much in these extremely slow conditions. Instead, when diving into this matchup, the battle along the baseline is what matters most. Well, given Draper is coming into this tournament in tremendous form, how can you not like him to get the better of Fritz in long exchanges? You only have to go back to Monday for a match in which Fritz struggled to beat a struggling Alejandro Tabilo, which says everything there is to say about the American’s form right now.

It’s also a little hard to ignore the fact that Draper beat Fritz 7-6 (6), 4-6, 6-4 when they met at the Paris Masters in October, and that was back when the American was playing some lights-out tennis. So, I like Draper to make it two in a row in conditions that just might suit him better. I don’t see the home-court advantage being enough to help Fritz overcome a poor matchup.

Pick: Draper ML (-141)