Indian Wells Betting Preview: Jenson Brooksby vs. Benjamin Bonzi

On Thursday, March 6, Jenson Brooksby will look to win his first tour-level match since January of 2023. The American, who was suspended 18 months for missing multiple drug tests, will take on Benjamin Bonzi in the opening round of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells.

While it might seem a little nuts to back a player that hasn’t won a big match in ages, it’s hard not to like the 24-year-old to find a way here.

Brooksby turned in an ugly performance at the Australian Open, losing 6-2, 6-0, 6-3 against Taylor Fritz in the first round. However, about a month later, he looked a lot better in a 6-7(6), 6-3, 6-4 loss to Tommy Paul in Dallas. Brooksby also played rather well in last week’s ATP Challenger-level event in San Diego, beating Coleman Wong 6-2, 6-4 and then putting up an admirable fight in a 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(5) loss to Ethan Quinn in the Round of 16.

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Slowly but surely, Brooksby is starting to look like the high-level counter puncher he was when he became the world No. 33.

It’s incredibly difficult to get the ball by him, and he’s very good at finding angles when redirecting pace. That marks it hard not to like Brooksby to find a little something in the desert. Bonzi has a big serve and powerful forehand, but it’s going to be hard for him to get the ball past Brooksby in these extremely slow conditions.

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Ultimately, it’s hard to imagine this being anything but a match in which Brooksby drags Bonzi into the mud, playing extremely long points and hoping to outlast the Frenchman. If it does play out that way, Brooksby will be happy that he used his protected ranking to get into this event. The American should win that type of battle with Bonzi nine times out of 10. Bonzi isn't much of a mover, and Brooksby should be able to grind him down.

Realistically, the serve is the most disappointing part of Brooksby’s game right now, but Bonzi isn’t a good enough returner to consistently take advantage of that. Bonzi has also lost three straight matches, with two of them coming against Arthur Bouquier and Luca Van Assche. While Bonzi was one of the hottest players on tour to finish the 2024 season, he hasn’t carried that over into the start of 2025. Brooksby is getting him at the right time, and this could be the type of match that the American needs to start making some progress as he looks to climb back up the rankings.

Pick: Brooksby ML (-110)