On Friday, March 7, Casper Ruud will take on Marcos Giron in the second round of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells. Giron is coming off a solid, 7-5, 7-6 (3) victory over Nikoloz Basilashvili. However, beating a mistake-prone player like Basilashvili, and beating a three-time Grand Slam runner-up, aren’t one in the same. So, even at juiced odds, I’m rolling with Ruud to get the better of Giron at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.
Giron has proven to be tough on slower hard courts in his career, and he was especially productive last March. However, this is an on-court matchup that really favors Ruud quite a bit. Over the last 52 weeks, Ruud’s 82.0% hold percentage is a bit higher than Giron’s 79.9%. The Norwegian’s 23.6% break percentage is also higher than Giron’s 19.9% in that span. On top of that, Ruud’s forehand will be the biggest weapon on the court, but it has nothing to do with hitting winners. Ruud can pound topspin-heavy forehands all over the court, allowing him to control points and get opponents out of position. I’ll take that over Giron’s ability to flatten the forehand out and go big every once in a while.
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It’s also worth noting that Giron isn’t exactly the type of player that can take advantage of Ruud having a slightly weaker backhand wing, as opponents go after the American’s the same way.
Ruud also beat Giron in somewhat similar conditions last year—6-1, 6-0 victory in Los Cabos. That’s another tournament played on a slower hard court. Ruud has never been further than the quarterfinals in the desert, but a player with his clay-court game should be able to crack these courts sooner or later. He has a reasonable draw and isn’t in the same half of the draw as Carlos Alcaraz or Novak Djokovic. Ruud is ready to make a run.
It should also be noted that -172 might seem hard to swallow, but that’s only an implied probability of 63.24% that Ruud will win the match. That seems extremely low in a matchup that has proven to be beneficial for Ruud. So, while people often equate “value” with underdogs and plus-money odds, I’d argue this is a good value.
Pick: Ruud ML (-172)