Indian Wells Betting Preview: Mirra Andreeva vs. Aryna Sabalenka

If you read our Indian Wells Tournament Preview for the women’s side, you should be sitting there with a ticket on Aryna Sabalenka to win the event. That’s something that I also ended up giving out at +450 odds on our Tennis Bets Live show. If you listened to that advice, I’d suggest simply hedging the BNP Paribas Open final with a play on Mirra Andreeva to win at the best price you can find. If you look around hard enough, you should be able to get +155. Risking a unit or a unit and a half on Andreeva would guarantee a nice payday.

If you didn’t consume any of our pre-tournament content, I’d suggest backing Sabalenka to win this match outright. I said on our Friday episode of Tennis Bets Live that styles make fights. I thought Andreeva had a great shot at beating Iga Swiatek, as I believed that her ability to get a ton of balls back would eventually lead to a bit of a breakdown from the Pole. Well, not only did we see that, but we also saw Andreeva come up with the goods in some key moments. However, I also noted that the Sabalenka matchup is one that is going to be difficult for her for a little bit longer.

While Andreeva has worked hard to pack on muscle and add some punch to her game, it’s clear that Sabalenka still has the ability to push her around—and bully her a bit. In WTA-level matches, Sabalenka is now 4-1 in five career meetings with Andreeva, and most of those matches were completely lopsided. In Madrid, in 2023, Sabalenka won 6-3, 6-1 in an hour and 13 minutes. A year later, in that same tournament, Sabalenka beat her 6-1, 6-4 in an hour and 20 minutes. Andreeva did get on the board when the two met at the French Open a month later, winning 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-4. However, we saw these two play earlier this season, and the results weren’t pretty. Sabalenka beat Andreeva 6-3, 6-2 in Brisbane. She then followed that up with a 6-1, 6-2 win over Andreeva at the Australian Open.

Read more: Mirra Andreeva vs. Aryna Sabalenka: Where to Watch, Indian Wells Preview, Betting Odds

The slower conditions in Indian Wells definitely help Andreeva out a little. It makes this play more like a slower clay-court match than a hard-court match. However, I’m still not sure that will be enough for the 17-year-old to overcome Sabalenka. The world No. 1 is just going to pound the ball all over the court. And while Andreeva might be able to track a lot of those shots down, I think we’re going to see a lot of those shots coming Sabalenka’s way with very little pace. They’ll also be shorter in the court. That will allow Sabalenka to come up and put them away.

Sabalenka is also a better server than Andreeva, even if the teenager has done good work to that part of her game over the last few months. Also, while Andreeva is a better returner than Sabalenka, the small difference could be made up with the Belarusian getting to return weaker serves.

I’d also be a little surprised if we see the very best that Andreeva has to offer in the biggest match of her career. While the 17-year-old handled her nerves well against Clara Tauson in the Dubai final, facing the top player in the world in a WTA 1000 final could be a little more daunting. It might help a little that the crowd will be backing Andreeva all the way, but Sabalenka is no longer at the point in her career where she’s folding because the crowd is against her. After all, look at what she did to Madison Keys in her 6-0, 6-1 semifinal win.

Lean: Sabalenka ML (-17)