Pick of the Day: Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev, Australian Open Men's Final

Before the Australian Open started, I had Jannik Sinner as my pick to win the event. I saw the improvements the Italian made towards the end of 2023, and trusted that he was ready to go out and beat Novak Djokovic at a major. And while I can’t quite say that I expected a lopsided 6-1, 6-2, 6-7 (6), 6-3 victory, it wasn’t surprising to me that Sinner got the job done in the semifinals.

Now, the 22-year-old is a big favorite (-285) over Daniil Medvedev in his first ever Grand Slam final. Given the circumstances heading into this match, I think the oddsmakers have this right. So, if you don’t already have Sinner to win the tournament, I’d suggest laying the games here.

The reason Sinner is in such good shape is that Medvedev has played way too much tennis over the last two weeks. With his five-set comeback win over Alexander Zverev in the semifinals, Medvedev has now played a total of 20 hours and 37 minutes. Sinner has played a little over 14 hours in the same amount of matches. Medvedev is a player that needs his legs in order to play masterful defense and ultimately wear down his opponents. But it’d be very surprising if the Russian is still moving well after the second set or so. He said after the quarterfinals that he was absolutely exhausted, and that was before another grueling match. That should make it hard for Medvedev to hang around against Sinner, who is the more dangerous baseliner and has the fresher legs. If Medvedev is even a quarter of a step slow, he’ll be fighting an uphill battle.

Physical advantage, I probably don’t have. Tennis advantage, let’s see. Daniil Medvedev

Sinner also happens to be on a three-match winning streak against Medvedev. All three of those matches were played on hard courts, and two of them came in the final two months of the 2023 season. Most of the matches between these two have been highly competitive, but Sinner has figured out how to beat Medvedev. That’s pretty interesting considering it’s Medvedev that is viewed as a master strategist.

Overall, Sinner is the more talented of these two players, and he’s in much better physical shape entering this match. When you combine that with the fact that the 22-year-old now has more real experience than ever, this feels like a match he should win somewhat easily.

If Medvedev wasn’t coming off a run of marathon matches, I probably would have been more inclined to back him with the games. But the lack of rest is simply too hard to ignore, and this feels like Sinner’s time to shine.

Pick: Sinner -4.5 Games (-125)