Pick of the Day: Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic, Australian Open

Ever since the 2024 Australian Open draw was released, everybody has been looking forward to a potential semi-final showdown between Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic. These two played three times towards the end of the 2023 season, and the Italian won twice. Not many players have done that to Djokovic, but this match—which we got—will be played in Melbourne Park. Djokovic has won 10 Australian Open titles here throughout his career. So, beating him Down Under is like beating the Undertaker at WrestleMania. It doesn’t happen very often.

But Sinner is going to believe he has the ability to do it, and I tend to like the 22-year-old’s chances. That’s why he was my favorite pre-tournament bet to win it all. However, if you’re just looking to play this match alone, I think the Over is the best way to do it.

Sinner is now a member of the sport’s top tier, joining Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz. Last year, Sinner was top five in both hold percentage and break percentage, something only a handful of players in the history of the sport have done. He also won his first Masters 1000 title, running through a good field in Toronto. He also won titles in Shanghai and Vienna before turning in a great performance at the ATP Finals, where he finished runner-up—to Djokovic.

Sinner has a complete tool kit right now: all-world power from both sides of the baseline, incredible movement skills for a player with his length, the ability to serve and return with the best of them. All in all, his time is coming soon. Perhaps very soon.

The problem is that there’s no way Djokovic will go down without a fight. We know that the Serbian is at his absolute best when the lights are brightest, and Sinner is going to get the 24-time Grand Slam champion’s top level here. Djokovic will test Sinner’s serve with his legendary returning skills, and he’ll do everything in his power to make Sinner uncomfortable on a point-by-point basis. Djokovic will also make all the necessary adjustments to give himself a shot at winning. Even if Sinner were to pull the upset (Novak is a -195 favorite on the moneyline), I don’t see the 36-year-old losing this match without winning a set or two.

Whatever happens, I don’t see either player not bringing their best tennis, and I really have a hunch that we’re going to see five sets. Or, at the very least, four highly competitive sets, which could mean a tiebreaker or two. I do like Sinner as a moneyline or spread play (-115 at +3.5 games), I think the safest bet is the Over. That protects you in the event that the greatest player in the history of the sport finds a way to win yet another massive match.

Pick: Over 39.5 Games (-122)